December 21, 2023

The futures markets routinely RUIN more expectations of the masses than satisfy them. Period. That IS how this stuff works. If all you had to do was “read the news” and go along with what all the pundits were saying, nobody would ever make any bad decisions about the markets…and everybody could get rich just by following the crowd. But again…that ain’t how it works.

Farmers depend on “experts” in agricultural media to make their marketing decisions, who, I assure you, are basically just perennially wrong about ag prices in the same way, as I have documented for several decades, as all of Wall Street’s analysts and “strategists” are about stocks. As one example, even though Corn topped out 18 months ago at over $8.00, thanks to the ever present bullish press, I’d bet that farmers go less than 20% of this crop got sold at even $7.00, or maybe even at $6.00, simply because they kept hearing “bull market,” and “wait for the market to rally again before you sell!” from all the ag analysts…to the extent that now we’re down at $4.70 and all I seem to hear is “next support is at…” and I swear, even though we’ve dropped about 40%, the idea that Corn has been in bear market is still not being recognized as such by all those same “experts” who have now been bullish for over $3.00.

The point is, Soybeans are the same story, excepting for the fact that they have not yet “cracked” as Corn and Wheat have…And I KNOW that farmers, listening to the bullish story that is STILL out there, are sitting on mountains of Soybeans…and are STILL waiting for the “next big rally” to sell into…and same as in Corn and Wheat…they WON’T get it.

WE HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE…DO CHECK OUT THIS CHART.

…As recently as 2018, Soybeans traded dead, dead sideways for 18 months…then surprised the whole bullish world by dropping 23% in 2 months…And yeah, I have been calling for this COLLAPSE for a long time, but markets DO repeat themselves…and right now the Soybean market looks, feels and smells exactly like it did back in June, 2018…

I know it’s the holidays. I hate sitting here at night doing this, right before Christmas (and my 36^th anniversary tomorrow) but I absolutely see the odds of this move starting NOW as quite high, while, really, NOBODY is looking…People can talk all they want about the markets “doing nothing during the holidays,” but I long ago concluded that the markets DON’T necessarily “care” about that…and that quite often, big moves DO start exactly then…when, again NOBODY is expecting anything.

Today was the lowest close in two months…and this market IS, in my old hand opinion, poised to TOTALLY FALL OFF THIS $13.00 CLIFF AND GO STRAIGHT, STRAIGHT DOWN…Maybe it’s still going to prove me wrong and just keep meandering sideways, but every trading sense I have says this inevitable (in my opinion) crash could be starting right here, right now…And if you have any intention of being on it, you need to get on BEFORE it truly gets out of the gate.

 DO this…

Or this…

I will not be out of this short trade…and as it breaks, I WILL be adding. I might be dead wrong, and if I am it means losing money, but I THINK THIS IS SO, SO BIG.

Get ON.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: SOYBEANS