September 5, 2024

TODAY

I THINK THE CATTLE MARKET

POTENTIALLY STARTED A MOVE DOWN

OF HISTORIC PROPORTION.

I URGE YOU TO GET SHORT…RIGHT HERE…RIGHT NOW.

During the first week of August, in spite of their ULTRA bullish mantra, “the smallest herd in 50 years!”, the Cattle market surprised everybody in that business by going straight down 20 cents in Feeders, and 10 cents in Live Cattle…IN THREE DAYS.

So here we are a month later, with both contracts having bounced around sideways, and convinced everyone, as one cattleman said to me, “that the ‘scare’ was over,” the implication being that the sell off had only been temporary, and that cattle were now ready to go back up…and NOT do what I have been anticipating…which is TO GO TOTALLY IN THE TANK.

My view is that the collapse began a month ago, and we’ve just had a brief, and normal, pause…and are back to where we were on August 1^st, wherein ANY SINGLE DOWN DAY CAN REPRESENT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT, BIGGER, AND FASTER, LEG DOWN IN BOTH FEEDERS AND FATS (Live Cattle)…which IS what I think we may have seen TODAY>

 I STRONGLY RECOMMEND BUYING PUTS HERE IN BOTH MARKETS.

I like all of these options…And I definitely recommend owning puts in both Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle…They WILL move together but you never know which will be bigger or faster at any given time.

The Oct has less time but definitely more leverage...

A major aspect of this “science” of predicting what will happen in the markets IS the experience of having seen 1000’s of charts and 1000’s of moves…And it absolutely does not mean I will be right, but I HAVE SEEN THIS NEXT CHART, LITERALLY, SOME 1000’S OF TIMES AND IT IS, TO ME, THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE SET UP YOU EVER GET…and considering that it is occurring at record high levels definitely increases my “enthusiasm” to be as SHORT this market as I possibly can…Again, it does not mean I will be right, and if I am wrong, you could lose everything you have on the table, but as I look at this, a three word expression that represents another aspect of how I see the markets is exploding in my head: SEE THE MONEY…And what I see here is the distinctly high probability of a 35 cent or $14,000 per contract move. That IS what I see, and simply stated, my own perspective is: Buy the puts. Let it happen. If it’s working, leave it alone and don’t even think about exiting until it either hits 140 or we get to the option’s expiration in late November. AND THEN TAKE THE MONEY.

And here is the REAL PERSPECTIVE…the reason why I keep screaming, “GET SHORT NOW!”

I don’t know how else to say it…or what else to show you guys that are passing on this idea…when the truth is, I THINK YOU WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING CLOSE TO THESE PRICES AGAIN FOR ANOTHER 10 YEARS…that the “monster crap out” we’re about to see, will NOT be turning around at some point…six months, or a year, or two years from now…and then be headed back up to $1.75 Fat Cattle or $2.00 Feeders. This bull market move was an anomaly…a perfect storm…and it ain’t coming around again, or so I say, anytime soon.

CALL ME AND BUY SOME PUTS!

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle