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March 5, 2026
WAR is not good…
I
continue to believe that investors (individuals and supposed professionals
alike) are up to their eyeballs in ownership of Stocks, Precious Metals, and
Crypto…And with the Wall Street touting machine having been in full
blown bullish mode in AI/Chips/Crypto for the past six months, my perception is
their ongoing hype has likely induced the masses into a mentality that, “No way
the market can really go down much from here,” such that, right now, with
stocks basically having gone nowhere since October (see charts following)…and
threatening to even make new lows, there’s very little fear out there…The truth is, as
DONALD TRUMP’S SELF-INITIATED MIDDLE EAST WAR is now breaking out, numerous
pundits in New York have been saying, “Oh yeah…When there’s a crisis like this,
you’re supposed to assume the market will likely be higher 3 months from now…so
just sit tight…And even do some buying.” Or in other words, “the market always
comes back,” and that is NOT accurate. For sure, sooner or later it does…but
historically speaking, “coming back” can sometimes take years…or in
fact…DECADES.
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND
BEING SHORT THE STOCK INDICES…I think this WAR, which will likely NOT be “over
in few weeks”, could be the straw that breaks the back of the markets, the
economy and the already suffering average American family…
Food and Feed crops were NOTICEABLY STRONG today…off of no
other news than the WAR…
My recommendation
remains to Buy “units” consisting of 1 one call in each of the four crops…With
the day-to-day news related volatility we’re seeing, I’m not wasting time with
specific option prices here, as, by tonight or tomorrow morning, they may be
quite different. I can say that you can
estimate that each “unit” can be done for about $5000, wherein,
if I am dead wrong about all of this, you could lose every dollar you
invest…And on the flip side, I’ll just say that having just one of these work
moderately (and 3 not at all) could probably result in a small profit, and
obviously, do much, much better than that if I am right in all of them…I’d also
note that they DO tend to move somewhat in unison…Also to note, that if you don’t want all four, there is nothing wrong
with betting on any one of them.
AND FINALLY…
If Stocks are falling, and if energy prices are rising fast,
both of these events can easily, and immediately, become major negatives for
Beef consumption…Additionally, if feed prices are rising, this can also be a
major factor in the profitability of raising (feeding) Feeder Cattle. My point
is, I can only think that these war related developments could be the straw that DEFINITIVELY
breaks the back of the Cattle Complex.
I CONTINUE TO LOUDLY
RECOMMEND BEING SHORT BOTH LIVE CATTLE AND FEEDER CATTLE…
It will be interesting to see what happens in both of them
tomorrow…and Monday.
In your court guys…Call anytime…about any of this.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: All of them