December 20, 2012
Here are some quick chart looks at all the markets in which I am currently making “fervent” recommendations to enter…
I will probably expand on this sometime after the Christmas break, but I see 2013 a being a year quite unlike 2012. Between the elections, the various events in the Middle East, the supposed crash of Europe, the supposed “cliff”, the supposed slow down in China, the supposed “too slow growth” in our economy and whatever other media driven “angsts” were out there, 2012 may have been greatest year of “uncertainty” I have ever witnessed…and the result may have been the sideways, choppy action we saw across the board in the markets. Looking backing on the year, you can almost say everything went two or three ways…and ended up going nowhere.
I think 2013 will be quite the opposite and my expectation is the coming year will be as “uneventful” as 2012 was “event-ridden”. I think many unknowns are already behind us, many more will soon follow…and the economic impact will be that we will see the return of BIG, SUSTAINED moves in just about every market area we trade…Maybe I’m wrong. I am definitely sometimes exactly that. But I do think there are some big opportunities in the year ahead. I look for a lot of moves to get started (or already have) and just keep going…for a long, long time…
I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE CORN, SOYBEANS AND WHEAT ARE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF MONSTER BEAR MARKETS.
As I have written before…Gold is what I consider to be sitting on the real “cliff”.
As I wrote last week, I see Gold as the reincarnation of the NASDAQ in 2000. I believe owning Gold is currently THE most popular opinion in ALL the markets (replacing Short the Euro last summer)...Gold actually made its high over a year ago but every week I note that public ownership of gold backed ETF's is hitting record levels...and I DON'T see this as a positive...I mean it when I say I can imagine ANYTHING on the downside here...This is King Gold...It lives on nothing more than hype and perception...My first "lesson" in the perils of owning popular ideas came in 1983 when I was long this market and had it lose 20% in 5 trading days...And that is not the only time I've seen this sort of wreck. These are futures. It's part of the business. And again, in my mind, any number you want to come up with as a downside target may turn out to be valid...
I think Lumber is just getting started on the upside...
If you want more info on why I am buying lumber, here’s a link to my initial recommendation: http://www.crokerrhyne.com/newsletters/11-30-12.htm
And still buying Cotton...
For reference, there are long term Corn, Wheat, Soybean and Gold charts on my last newsletter: http://www.crokerrhyne.com/newsletters/12-13-12.htm
And if you want a long term chart in Cotton: http://www.crokerrhyne.com/newsletters/11-30-12.htm
Have a great Christmas or whatever it is you celebrate…
And do give me a call if you are interested…
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Wheat and Soybean Meal Puts.