November 19, 2015
I may be dead, dead wrong but I think all 5 of these markets have enormous profit potential during the next 3-6 months. I see EVERY one of them as being letter perfect set ups to use the 1 call & 1 put approach.
I AM BUYING THE EUROCURRENCY
(SELLING THE DOLLAR)
I AM BUYING
CORN, COTTON, SOYBEANS & WHEAT
This report is not so much about why I am buying them…It mostly addresses nothing more than the numbers…that is, what it would cost to own all five markets, ABSOLUTELY using the 1 & 1 approach…And how individually, or collectively, these positions could work out in real money…both as winners or losers.
Before the charts and numbers, a very brief comment…
As I’ve recently written, I firmly believe the single most unanimous market related opinion in the media today is: “The Dollar is strong…and can only get stronger.”
I’ve also repeatedly stated, but will reiterate: If you don’t understand that this whole mob psychology game is replete with totally backward, sheep herd mentality opinions that routinely become massively, disastrously wrong, you are ignoring/forgetting the uncountable market tops, bottoms, reversals and crashes we have all seen that WERE, usually as an afterthought, really quite obviously going to happen.
And that, to me, is EXACTLY what we now have in the Dollar…and concurrently, but, in the opposite direction…the Eurocurrency. The trading world LOVES the Dollar and HATES the Euro...and make no mistake…they feel unanimously that way for what they believe are SO many supposedly, undeniably, “logical” reasons.
Furthermore, this unanimously bullish Dollar opinion is being directly construed as a definitively bearish factor for virtually all major commodities…four of which are the Corn, Cotton, Soybeans and Wheat markets I want to own now.
Summary? I believe the sheep are all lined up and totally about to be wrong again…same as, same as…same as the way it eventually ALWAYS is in this business. The sentiment is overwhelmingly negative in all five of these markets. I am still buying ALL of them.
Buy the Eurocurrency
Refer to the long term
chart below and DO remember that almost ALL of 2015 (what you see above) was a
sideways trading range...Even so, just within this consolidation, the low to the
high (among all the swings) was about 12 points...So, to me, to move from here,
107, to 125, would NOT be unreasonable or at all surprising.
One more time…what you see above is a “quiet” year in this market. $2-$3 on the upside is NOT a giant move in Soybeans.
Same thing…the past year was a market going nowhere…
And yes, another one that has been nothing but sideways…Actually a $1.40 move would be what I would call “smallish.”
I am fairly certain NOBODY is expecting anything out of Cotton as it has been the biggest dog, and the MOST SIDEWAYS of all the major commodity markets, for seemingly forever now. You want supposedly “bearish” fundamentals? Well, you have them here…Really, I cannot count the times I’ve seen this…a market just DOWN, and dead in the water, and everybody has given up on it and is now looking elsewhere…and then it starts to move, on ZERO news, and before anybody even BEGINS to realize what is happening, it has jumped 25-30% and THEN traders and analysts start noticing…And it would be easy for me to imagine it happening exactly here in the “White Gold”. Do not ignore this market. It’s long overdue and these ARE super option numbers.
All of the potential moves I have drawn on these charts are obviously just possibilities among endless permutations of the courses each of these markets may take. BUT, after having browsed through a million charts the past 35 years, I do know the moves I’ve shown here are NOT unreasonable expectations…and together with those possibilities, also know that the dollar values of these moves are not just pretty numbers to hopefully excite anyone into buying into my ideas. I see them as REAL. They ARE what I am personally looking for in every one of these markets…And I mean it when I keep saying, in all five of these markets, “This would NOT be a big move.”
It may just sound like a sales pitch but I do think these are ALL incredible numbers and incredible set ups. Yes, the Euro is expensive, but it’s also big. And yes, I have been on these ideas for a good while now and all they’ve done is end up going nowhere or sliding slightly lower…But I STILL look at all five of these markets as having truly explosive potential, and if you would ever involve yourself in the insanity of trading futures, I DO think this is a great, great place to start…or resume. As always, I may be dead wrong but I think 2016, beginning from here, is going to be a fantastic year.
Like I’ve said before, I think it makes the most sense to do them all, but if you can’t…at least do SOMETHING.
On another note…I can sometimes look like an idiot, or a genius, in this stuff…but I assure you I am neither. At any rate, I just wanted to tell you that, with the combination of the 1 & 1 approach, and these market setups (and others on the near horizon), I am more optimistic about being in this dumbass business than I have been in years…These are great trades. I have a plan. It just has to be executed…and that is what I intend to do.
That comes from the heart…Take the dive guys.
Old Hand Bill
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Eurocurrency, Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, Wheat