November 9, 2023

In the end, this should be simple...be there when a market is making a sizeable move up or down…and stay there. And that is what I think is coming here…

Any time one day sales of more than 100,000 tonnes of a crop are made, exporters have to announce it (goes back to the 1970’s when Russia bought up almost our entire wheat crop and nobody knew it until it was too late). The announcement below, released this morning, absolutely should have lifted the Soy market BIGTIME, but instead, they opened down 9-10 cents…and now, following a monthly USDA report, they have closed down about 22 cents.

If 1.7 mln tonnes sold (the biggest one day number I can ever remember) didn’t rally Soybeans, what will?

And there is an old, and valid, market adage…referencing a bearish response to bullish news…that: When a market doesn’t do what it “should,” then it will probably do what it “shouldn’t,” and fairly SOON. And as I keep noting, virtually no one in the ag world would be surprised by Soybeans moving higher…that is, every analyst I am aware of is bullish Soybeans…and with that in mind…GOING DOWN IS WHAT “SHOULDN’T” HAPPEN NOW.

I swear, this recent rally WAS the last one…based on South America weather talk in the media…And the LAST chance you will get to sell Soybeans at anything close to these levels. And yeah…I’ve been saying it…over and over and over to the point that I know that 95% of you are saying, “Not this again!”, But I THINK THE NEXT FEW MONTHS COULD BE DEVASTATING FOR SOYBEANS. 

One so more time…I will show you again how they do FAIL, seemingly out of nowhere, and that they do so when NOBODY is remotely expecting them to drop by 20%-25%.

What I’d ask you to do is to go through these tops one by one in Soybeans, and ask yourself, at each totally UNEXPECTED tipping point,, if you honestly think ANYBODY was saying, “DON’T be bullish. Get short now. This market is about to collapse!” And KNOW that the answer, virtually and/or literally, 100% of the time, is “NO.”

I STILL SEE THIS AS A MONSTER TRADE…AND THINK THE TIMING FOR IT TO HAPPEN RIGHT NOW IS LETTER PERFECT….Bullish USA farmers have tremendously undersold their crops and are now harvesting beans, that, sooner or later, HAVE TO BE SOLD…while at the same time, you’d better believe that every possible Soybean producer on the South American CONTINENT (massive acreage in other words) is planting $13.50 Soybeans like there is no tomorrow…

WE ARE, I THINK, DEAD ON THE TIPPING POINT……AND, LIKE CLOCKWORK, EVERYBODY I HEAR IS NOTHING BUT BULLISH.

 GET SHORT NOW. JUST BECAUSE IT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET DOES NOT MEAN IT ISN’T HAPPENING NOW…

Considering the news, I think today’s 22 cent down day (which looks like nothing on the chart) could be the beginning of the end…And I do not exaggerate, nor is this wishful thinking, but it would not surprise me to see this market down $1.00-$1.50 within a week or two. IT’S JUST THE WAY THIS STUFF WORKS…WHERE SIDEWAYS TURNS INTO “BLAST AWAYS”…and yeah, REALLY, from one day to the next…And no matter for how long I’ve been calling for it.

I encourage you to pick up the phone and call me.

Thanks

Bill

770-425-7241

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans