November 8, 2024

 The longer they have stayed here…This bigger this trade had become.

My opinion of course…but I DO think the potential here is enormous.

Cattle have been meandering at record high prices for over a year now…I absolutely believe that is about to end…that the odds of going sideways from here are nil…and that they are NOT going higher…which only leaves DOWN…and DOWN BIG.

I MAY BE DEAD WRONG, WHICH WOULD MEAN LOSING MONEY, BUT I HONESTLY DO NOT THINK IT EVER GETS ANY BIGGER THAN THIS.

When this pays, I believe it will pay big. This market does not make “smallish” moves, and beyond that, has a decided tendency, going back 50 years, to make big, non-stop, straight down collapses, which, as I have noted many times, is directly related to the fact that a steer that is ready for market cannot be “stored in a bin” waiting for higher prices. When it’s time to go, they have to be sold, no matter what the price might be.

I have been saying that I 150% believe it IS coming and regard any start toward lower prices a potentially the beginning of the move…which IS what I think we have seen for the past few weeks…

One thing I will argue is that when Cattle break, they come out of nowhere…In my experience, there is NEVER some event or report or whatever that says, “Hey! Get short now.” And then it just happens, and per all those relatively short timeframes, it happens VERY quickly.

You’ve seen this histories before…They aren’t contrived…They DO present an accurate picture of how the Cattle market has “behaved’ FOR DECADES…so DO give them a decent look again.

I’m showing them to you again because they ARE relevant…and they DO substantiate my opinion that CATTLE DO ROUTINELY GO INTO WHAT I WOULD DESCRIBE AS ABSOLUTE NOSEDIVES.

Here’s a summary of the two charts…And I DO maintain that the next bear market WILL probably be significantly larger than the 19.5% average, AND that it will happen every bit as quickly…AND seemingly, OUT OF NOWHERE.

A 20% break takes Live Cattle down to about 148…and 30% takes them to 130. To anyone in the cattle business, with “the cattle herd at 65 year lows,” that sounds impossible…But that IS the way this market trades…A few years back, with Corn at $8.00 and analysts talking about “running out of it,” there wasn’t a farmer anywhere in the USA who thought we’d see $5.00, much less today’s $4.00…and believe me, THIS IS NO DIFFERENT. CATTLE CAN, AND PROBABLY WILL, GO DOWN 20-30% FROM HERE.

Here’s the current look in both markets…and the put option I’d recommend buying…ON MONDAY.

Both Live Cattle and Feeders closed down for the week…at new one month lows…which is interesting in that the Stock Market was doing exactly the opposite…While this may, or may not, of significance, that IS how bear markets DO often begin…that is, quietly, on ZERO bearish news, they just start giving way…and before you know it, they are accelerating lower.

FEEDER CATTLE

 LIVE CATTLE

Buy them both as a unit…about $3650…If I am wrong, and they go nowhere, or up, you will lose 100% of that…But I say, if they ARE going…and I obviously think they are…I THINK THEY WILL DO EVERY BIT OF WHAT I HAVE DRAWN HERE…and that the dollars values shown here are not wishful thinking.

I think this is so big…and SO READY…and that the break I have been waiting, and waiting and waiting for…IS dead smack ahead.

Call me and DO THIS.

Old Hand Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle