October 30, 2024

If you have been SHORT CATTLE,

and time has run out,

DO NOT BE OUT OF IT. GET BACK IN.

And if you have not been in them,

NOW IS A FANTASTIC TIME TO GET ON.

 Short and direct…I have been Short the Cattle Complex for some time now…Back in August, when Feeders broke down roughly 25 cents, or $12,500 per futures contract, I felt certain that the 70-80 cent collapse I have been expecting was fully underway…But it was NOT…and the ensuing 2 month rally resulted in decent gains turning into losses, which was discouraging (a euphemism for losing money) but DID NOT CHANGE MY VIEW OF THIS MARKET…and I ABSOLUTELY REGARD THE RECENT RALLY AS NOTHING MORE THAN A BEAR MARKET RETRACEMENT…AND CONTINUE TO REGARD ANY DOWN DAY, RIGHT NOW, AS POTENTIALLY BEING THE BEGINNING OF A MASSIVE MOVE LOWER.

During the past few days, on no particular news, Feeders have quietly made NEW ONE MONTH LOWS…and without overthinking it, my assumption is that what I have been looking for is right now (literally) just getting started…And every time I take another look at the long term chart below, it reminds me to NOT be thinking, “Is this a fake out?” or “Will it rally again?” or “Should I wait to see it do more?” None of that! What you do here is BUY THE PUTS AND LET IT HAPPEN.

In my opinion, this is a once-a-decade opportunity in a market that routinely makes ENORMOUS non-stop moves…ESPECIALLY WHEN PRICES ARE FALLING OUT OF THE STRATOSPHERE…and as a trader, the last thing you want to do is, like I said, “overthink it,” or really, get “too careful” waiting for it to give you some great sign or “signal” that tells you, “Can’t lose.” YOU JUST WRITE THE CHECK AND GET ON…AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, STAY ON WHEN IT STARTS WORKING.

On the chart following, it may look like nothing…or be nothing…but the past two days have negated the past month’s action.

So I repeat…All of the past year has been nothing but a topping formation…and at some point…like ANY point now…And yes, this is one old hack’s opinion, THIS MARKET WILL TOTALLY AND BRUTALLY FALL OUT OF BED…AND GO DOWN FURTHER THAN ANYBODY, ESPECIALLY CATTLEMEN, COULD POSSIBLY EXPECT.

I urge you…Don’t mess around. If this makes sense to you…call me and GET ON it!

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Feeder Cattle