September 22, 2023

MAYBE I AM DEAD WRONG.

I SEE SHORT SOYBEANS AS A GIGANTIC TRADE…

AND IT IS HAPPENING NOW…AND I MEAN RIGHT NOW,

WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, SEEMINGLY THE WHOLE AG WORLD

STILL THINKS THAT SOY IS IN A BULL MARKET.

I SAY IT’S NOT…

AND WE ARE ABOUT TO HEAD STRAIGHT DOWN TO $10.00.

Although Soybeans made their highs 18 months ago…when they peaked almost $5.00 above current levels…I have yet to hear a single farmer or analyst refer to this as being a bear market. All I ever hear is, “tight stocks,” and “next support,” and “China buying,” and “farmers won’t sell here,” and “beans are headed back to $14.00,” etc. etc. etc., with one very MAJOR result of this ongoing almost unanimous bullish opinion being that farmers, who produce the nation’s Soybeans and therefore represent massive, massive selling, are still sitting on their hands and have so far sold VERY little of this year’s crop…which HAS to happen sooner or later…And when it comes, when they INEVITABLY do start to sell, I believe it the decline I have been predicting will begin by “quietly” slipping lower (as we’ve done during the last month with prices having dropped $1.00 with zero bearish news to “explain it”), and then turn into an avalanche of selling as prices “surprisingly” KEEP falling, and farmers, fearful of watching even more money DISAPPEAR, begin to panic sell en masse, thereby further accelerating the speed and size of the move…and before you know it, the “bull market” in Soybeans has quite suddenly hit $10.00.

Four decades in the insanity of commodity futures trading has taught me that THIS IS THE WAY SOYBEAN CRASHES HAVE BASICALLY UNFOLDED FOR DECADES…WHICH IS THE REASON WHY SOYBEANS HAVE A LONG HISTORY OF REPEATEDLY DROPPING 20-30% IN 2-3 MONTHS TIME.

Soybeans closed 40 cents lower this week…and as noted, have now dropped $1.00 during the last month of trade…again, with NO NEWS that suggests, “Sell Soybeans!”

I do think this market is absolutely in gear on the downside and in the process of absolutely totally going in the tank…If you have the risk capital, and do ever consider yourself to be a commodity futures trader (no, this shit is not for everybody), I urge you to make a move on this BEFORE it becomes the next big headline.

I think just about any option you want to buy right now, with more time or less…at-the-money or out-of-the-money…has the potential to produce large percentage gains. The March 1300 put  is just one way to go…

Here’s another possibility…with more leverage…

Or do a combination of the two…wherein the $1300 gives you something sell and lock down profits if this does get going.

The important thing though is just to get SOMETHING on here…not just sit there and watch another down week (quite possibly bigger) go by.

I don’t just write it to attract attention…I DO THINK THIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF HAPPENING VERY MUCH AS I KEEP DEPICTING IT…same as it was last year in Cotton, and in Wheat, and in Crude Oil, etc…With that being said, I am also obligated to be clear that if I am wrong you can lose every dollar you put on the table.

Contact me and DO something with this…on MONDAY.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: SOYBEANS!