There are actually 4 newsletters on this page. Each was brief and sent out on successive days from September 17th to the 20th.
September 17, 2012
Keep Buying Stocks…I believe we have a LONG way to go…and very quickly
This is a VERY quick comment. I want to go watch the Falcons….
Even though the stock market appears to be lifting off (my opinion), the majority of sentiment I see is the same old claptrap we have been hearing forever…all sorts of reasons why the stock market is not supposed to be going up…
As evidence, even though the market made new 5 year highs on Friday, look at a few (of many) “You are a fool if you buy it” headlines I’ve seen in just the past few days….
They were saying selling 2500 points ago and they are basically still saying the same…
This is my basic picture of the stock market and I still think it looks incredibly bullish…Decide for yourself if the this and chart following even remotely fit the sort of negative media you have been hearing ALL THE WAY UP.
As I’ve said before, when a market (especially the stock market) is on its highs, and all you hear is DOUBT, you are supposed to buy it. …I mean, where do those guys get their reasons? “Rally in TROUBLE”???!!! when it JUST made new highs?
More to come tomorrow on Euro (which is also moving) and other markets. If you have any inclination to agree with my perspective on stocks, do give me a call. This market looks like it is beginning to accelerate and it is not, in my old hack opinion, anywhere near too late to get on.
September 18, 2012
We are out of our long positions in Corn and Soybeans.
There comes a time in every market when it is best to simply be an observer. I have been recommending the long side of Corn and Soybeans since late June. In the past few weeks, however, I have been moving to the sidelines in both of these markets, and as of today, now have no positions in either.
While I can still envision Corn over $10, and Soybeans over $20, I also firmly believe, sooner or later both of these markets will absolutely get clobbered on the downside...This IS the seeming nature of the agricultural commodity markets. Big bull markets are usually followed by devastating bear markets.
Truth is, at the moment, I could easily make a case for either side of the argument…or beyond that, maybe even a prolonged period of wide-swinging sideways trade.
I am therefore out of these two markets as a speculator.
On the other hand, if you are a producer of Corn, Wheat, or Soybeans, I do have some ideas about what you should definitely be doing as a hedger, and urge you to give me call if you would like an outside opinion regarding your crop marketing, both for your 2012 and 2013 crops.
Looking at where we are historically in both of these markets, and noting what has happened so many times when bull markets in them have ended, I am obviously now considering the short side…If you have any thoughts of your own, I would love to hear them.
More to come tomorrow…
September 19, 2012
Still buying the Eurocurrency…
According to the talking heads, we have FOREVER heard that Europe and the Euro were supposed to fall apart. They didn’t…and aren’t going to…and the Eurocurrency has now rallied about 10 points.
As I have repeatedly noted, the absurdly bearish sentiment on the Euro constituted one of the most one sided opinions I have ever seen in this business…this mob psychology GAME otherwise referred to as investing…Also as repeatedly noted, this overwhelmingly one sided opinion was reflected in the fact speculative interests recently held the largest short position EVER in the history of the Eurocurrency, leading me, together with other “rationale”, to look for a powerful rally in the Euro.
This rally appears to be underway, and similar to the Stock Market, I believe the upside move is FAR from over. I therefore remain a buyer in the Eurocurrency. I still have no specific target in mind but can easily suppose there is another 9-10 points left before some sort of major pause begins.
To further illustrate why I believe the rally has a long way to go, take a look at this chart of Futures Open Interest in the Euro since it began trading in 1998…
What I am trying to show you with this chart…
1. Open interest tells you how many contracts are held in a market,...and this number is always changing as traders enter and exit positions...”Mobs” of buying and selling ARE what make markets go up and down.
2. You should easily be able to see, during the past year, as the Euro was declining, and as more and more "experts" were ludicrously predicting Europe's oblivion, record numbers of speculators took short futures positions, to the extent open interest had actually DOUBLED since last August...
3. In recent months, as the Euro has begun to rally, only a relatively small percentage of those shorts appear to have headed for the exit...
My point? I strongly believe all those mountains of remaining short specs WILL soon end up as BUYERS (to get out), and the 5-6 point rally we've seen in the past few weeks will look like kid's play.
I SEE 140-145 AS A STRONG POSSIBILITY BEFORE WE GET TO YEAR END. I AM STILL BUYING THE EUROCURRENCY.
Here’s an option I like right here…
If you want futures, I’d say you buy it here and give it a 2.00 point stop ($2450, or $1225 on the mini). Add if it makes new highs.
Give me a call if you are interested.
September 20, 2012
I am still buying the Dow…while the media/analysts/experts are STILL looking for reasons to sell it…
The stock market still looks to me like it is truly in a lift off mode…that it is gearing up for an acceleration into a mode which will have it pushing 15,000 in the Dow, quite possibly, at the latest, within a few months time. Meanwhile, all you hear is how bad the economy is…or more accurately, how bad it supposedly going to get…
More headlines from the past few days…
Maybe I will look like a fool 2-3 weeks from now, but isn’t this obvious? The majority of you (reading this) have been around the markets for a long time…You MUST have seen this media generated “Don’t buy it” attitude in stocks on a 1000 occasions during the past 30 years while the market was going up 1500%. This market IS dead on its highs…DO you hear anybody screaming buy it? DO you hear anybody hollering, “It’s headed for ______!”, or anything like that? Do you hear anybody giving you reasons why you should buy it? Sure, there must be a few people who are talking the upside, but again, we ARE dead on the highs, and is there even the most minute degree of “euphoria” out there? You MUST know what this means.
THE STOCK MARKET IS A BUY. MAYBE I AM DEAD, DEAD WRONG BUT I TRULY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS THING PUT UP THREE OR FOUR KNOCKOUT DAYS AND “SUDDENLY” BE PASSING 14,500. I MEAN IT. I BELIEVE IT. I DO THINK THIS MARKET IS IN THE PROCESS OF DRAMATICALLY ACCELERATING HIGHER.
Here is a one month call option…If 4 weeks from now it is “in the money”, you would then have the choice of either selling the option, or exercising it into a December futures contract…I think this is a great bet…If I am wrong you could lose the total value of the option…If I am right, you have a shot at what might be a pretty decent hit.
Or you can just buy the futures and enter a 200 point, $1000 stop…then double the position if it makes new highs…
Do what nobody else is doing. Buy it here.