September 7, 2023

According to virtually 99% of ag analysts out there 3-6-9 months ago, there was NO WAY Corn would now be anywhere even close to $5.00. Unless you are just blinding your memory, you will recall that all of the chatter was only about how HIGH Corn could go ($7-$8?), with relatively NOTHING to suggest we were actually in a bear market (and have been for 18 months). Yet here we are, under $5.00 and those same guys are STILL bullish…and STILL unaware that the vastly overwhelming majority of grain markets, no matter how supposedly bullish the numbers might be, ALMOST ALWAYS EVENTUALLY GO ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN TO WHERE THEY STARTED….which is part of my own analysis that calls for UNDER $4.00 CORN within the next 2-6 months.

I could write the same thing about the Soy Complex…meaning UNDER $10.00 SOYBEANS…And would also note, that with Soybeans typically having their most critical development stage 2-4 weeks after Corn, at this time of year the price action in Soybeans can run 2-4 weeks behind Corn…which IS, I believe exactly what you can see on the chart following…

Soybeans are running about a month behind the Corn market…

 In other words, amidst all of the seemingly never ending “Hot and dry! Better buy!” headlines, which have already proven to be a TOTAL, TOTAL BULLISH FAKE OUT IN CORN, it sure looks like the same script is unfolding in Soybeans…and, I believe, has Soybeans now set to, yeah, GO ALMOST STRAIGHT DOWN…and NOT RECOVER…And yes, that is what I have been saying…with NOBODY believing me or participating here (which I understand)…But believe me, I have been here before, wherein if, before spending your bucks, most investors want the comfort of finding somebody other than me that is screaming “Sell!”, but all they can find is pretty much everybody else citing “bullish fundamentals” predicting quite the opposite…

But what I “know?” This IS the way I have seen it happen 100’s of times…and as I have documented here over and over…that, in a surprise to analysts, farmers and the trading masses, THE BOTTOM DOES FALL OUT FOR 4-10 WEEKS…USUALLY IN 20-30% DECLINES…And as I also keep reminding you, there is no big signal or event prior to the sell off that says, “NOW is when you sell.” IT JUST STARTS HAPPENING…”Quietly” even at first…and then accelerating.

And that is where I think we are right now. Quietly about 50 cents off last week’s spike downside reversal high…Down 17 today and potentially on the move.

Here’s one way to go…If you want more time, contact me and I can give you options all the way out to next July…because, really, I think we will be going down, down and further down all the way out into the middle of next year.

Ignore all the bull about bull markets. These two crops are in bear markets…And If you are a farm guy, you’ll know what I mean when I say that Corn and Soybeans will get as bad as Wheat already has been.

Call me if you’re interested.

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

 The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans