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August 21, 2021

 I believe…

An outright collapse in Corn & Soybeans has begun

I cannot state it more emphatically…For months on end, I have seen nothing but bullish press regarding Corn and Soybeans. Virtually every USDA report has been classified as “Bullish!” Supposedly bullish weather issues have been ongoing front and center as news somewhere in the USA or in other crop producing countries as well. And of course, there is the ever repeated, “When China buys!” mantra, from just about every analyst I see…THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING BUT BULLISH RHETORIC FOR MONTHS…and what have those markets done?

Well, in spite of all that seemingly UNANANIMOUS bullish talk, they certainly have NOT been going up…In fact they have done nothing but move sideways, with occasional sharp “sucker rallies” following “bullish” news events, with the bottom line being that they both closed down hard on Friday, really just one good day away from NEW FOUR MONTH LOWS. See for yourself…


I will state the following as a FACT: One thing that is pretty much a constant in the commodity markets is that they repeatedly take the expectations of the what analysts, “experts”, farmers and traders are thinking prices will do…and BLOW THEM OUT OF THE WATER. And if you don’t understand that, you should forget ever going anywhere near the futures markets.

I have been losing money for months as these markets have gone nowhere…not proving me wrong in my contention that they are all major shorts…but simply as a function of owning options, with Corn, Beans (and Cattle) going sideways, I have watched a lot of money disappear as options expired worthless…But I have been here before. I have suffered through this before…But I have also seen, and think I “know,” what comes next...And that is that BIG SIDEWAYS ACTION IS USUALLY FOLLOWED BY BIG, ONE DIRECTIONAL, OFTEN NON-STOP, MOVES…and though I certainly may be wrong, my VERY firm opinion is that I (and anyone who is on board with me) am immediately positioned to make the big hit profits that are my objective as a broker and trader.

Tops are tough and sitting resolutely with puts in Corn and the Soybean Complex has been losing money, but after being out of my office for the past two weeks (events in my family life), and only viewing the markets from afar..As I now take a fresh, and I believe, extremely objective look at everything, I am more certain than ever that being short these two markets represents massive profit potential and am therefore am strongly recommending buying puts and/or shorting futures…Right here. Right now. As always, this is my opinion and if I am wrong it can also mean losing everything you put on the table in following my recommendations.

And just to put it in plain English, my cold, hard, and I assure you, fully objective view is that both of these markets WILL BE SHARPLY LOWER 3-4 MONTHS FROM NOW.

Again…ALL of the news and USDA reports have been nothing but bullish, bullish, bullish for months now…and these markets have had NUMEROUS report and event related chances to take off higher…and they have not…And more so than ever, I SEE BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS AS MONSTER SHORTING OPPORTUNITIES.

 Here’s the big picture in both markets…


And then there is this…Soybean Oil…


I remain short and encourage you to do so as well. I believe these tops are DONE and the sideways action is over…

Here are my recommendations…and I DO think every one of these markets will do something quite similar to how I have drawn them…It doesn’t mean I will be right, but I have seen this set up too many times to count.


Let’s get real. With all of the supposedly “bullish fundamentals” out there, we are NOT supposed to be at 4-5 months lows…And to quote the first famous trader I ever studied: When a market doesn’t do what it’s “supposed to do,” look for it to do very much the opposite, and generally, fairly soon.

Also, I’d point out that most markets have a tendency to go down MUCH faster than they go up…simply because most traders lean toward the buy side, and when markets are declining, quite often it is fear, and losing money, that drives speculator selling.

I absolutely recommend owning  “units” of ONE PUT IN EACH SECTOR…that is, 1 Corn Put together with 1 Put in either Soybeans or Soybean Oil…Figure about $3000 per unit…So, if you think this makes sense, and have the cash to risk, do the math yourself for what the dollar results can be if I am moderately or completely right as to what I think is about to happen…and join me in this…And, it goes without saying, do be aware that if I am dead wrong, you could lose whatever amount you put on the table.

Sideways has been painful, but as it says on my wall: ONE GOOD TRADE IS ALL IT TAKES…But you do have to be there when it happens…And I think this IS it.

Call me if you want to know more…





All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans, Soybean Oil

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