July 19, 2023

 Hot Dry Forecast in the Midwest

Produces Another New High Close in Soybeans

This is either the beginning of a true Soybean weather market explosion…which, in my experience, suggests we are either going straight up for at least $3-$4 a contract…Or…the current hot, dry forecast proves to be wrong, and what we actually get are normal temps and timely rain…which would probably mean going straight back down.

In the final analysis, it’s all about the math of option value changes, and I think this current set up is absolutely as good as it gets for the 2 & 1 options approach.

Weather IS the factor here…and one more time…the action we’re seeing right now, dead on one year highs…IS either the beginning of a massive upside breakout or nothing but a bullish fake out.

If it’s a breakout, my very firm opinion is that there is NO TELLING how far up we go, but think it will at least be up to the $17-$18 area…

And if it’s a fake out, we will QUICKLY be back at $13 and headed dramatically lower…

And considering the circumstances, I totally believe that one or the other WILL have happened within the next 4 weeks…that what we’re definitely NOT going to see is this contract just sitting here sideways.

And this makes the September options, with one month until expiration, the letter perfect 2 & 1…presenting the opportunity to either hit it big…or…be wrong and get 100% of your money back…the one caveat being that if this contract does just go dead sideways, you could lose 100% of what you have invested as both options could expire worthless.

Do understand that droughts generally do not become loud media headlines until AFTER the too hot and too dry conditions have begun to damage the crops…And often means that by the time you see “Drought! ” in the news, the resulting bull move may be almost over…which means that if you do think this idea makes sense, do NOT be waiting for some confirming headlines…that is, get on it now.

Thanks,

Bill

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866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

 The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans