June 18, 2024

I don’t think I have ever seen it like this…where it seems like EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE LONG EVERYTHING… The bearish Brokerage House nitwits who started the year almost unanimously bearish the stock market are now jumping all over themselves to one-up their cohorts at to “how high stocks are going from here.” And I don’t care what asset class it is, seems like there are nothing but buy recommendations everywhere…What AI stock do you want to buy? What’s the next Nividia? And be SURE you get some Crypto!…And oh yeah, get some Gold, and especially Silver now…! And don’t forget Crude Oil…which is now “low” and must be a buy here. And Copper…Cattle…Cocoa? At their all time highs? Doesn’t matter…They’re all in short supply! Get long some of them too!

Really. Think about it…For sure there are “worries” being expressed by the ever backwards talking heads…There always are, even in the best of times…But right now, Wall Street’s analysts and economics  are comforted by the fact that the big bogeyman, inflation, is definitely on the wane…and everybody’s big question of, “When, or IF, the Fed will lower rates?”, has now become, “Soon! And Oh Boy! That means Stocks, Precious Metals, Crypto, etc. can only be going up!”

And so with ALL of these markets at all time highs, DO YOU HEAR ANY NOTICEABLE DOUBT ABOUT WHERE ANY OF THEM ARE GOING…EXCEPT HIGHER?

I’m say it again…for the 1000^th time…that investing IS the world’s biggest mob psychology game…and that ALL of the values of ALL of these asset classes are a function of media generated MASS PERCEPTIONS…and more so than ever here in the 24-7 INTERNET INFORMATION AGE…And that, as we all know, there IS a time to be buying…and there IS a time to be selling…IN ALL OF THE MARKETS…And right now, with my read of the media being that it’s not “IF” you should buy, but simply “WHAT” you should buy, across the board, whatever the market is? I THINK IT IS TIME TO BE SELLING JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING.

The truth is, “Sell Everything,” is exactly the opposite of where we were back in March 2020 when Covid had CRUSHED all of the markets and nobody wanted to buy anything…The public and investors were scared to death, which was precisely when I put out my first and only ever “BUY EVERYTHING” newsletter.

BUY EVERYTHING

March 18, 2020

 Getting right to it…Short and Sweet…

Buy the Stock Indices

Buy Crude Oil

Buy Corn, Cotton, Wheat & the Soybean Complex

Buy Cattle

Buy Hogs

Buy Lumber

And we are out of our Short Gold position…

The past few weeks have been unlike anything I have ever seen in the markets…by four-fold. Fear is now more rampant that it was even at the 2009 Stock Market lows (Dow 6500) when there were actual fears of the entire financial system collapsing.

As I’ve written forever, the markets are more about mob psychology than anything else.

I firmly believe the markets (again the world’s biggest video game, played with real money) WILL turn back up at a moment when the mood across the nation has become “HOPELESS,” when the news is terrible every day, and only getting worse…and worse…and worse. AND I THINK WE ARE THERE...I THINK THE PAST FEW DAYS, PRECEDED BY LAST WEEKS EQUALLY DEVASTATING MARKET COLLAPSES (in Stocks, Bonds, Gold and other Commodities…in EVERYTHING), HAVE BROUGHT US TO THE POINT…SPECIFICALLY TODAY…WHEN MY GUESS IS THE FEAR HAS NOW PLAYED OUT AS MUCH AS IT EVER COULD…AND THAT ALL OF THOSE MARKETS LISTED ABOVE ARE BUYS…RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW

That’s what I wrote on March 18, 2020 after ALL of the markets truly had been massacred…and people WERE scared to death…and if, as can be seen in retrospect on the charts following, all of these markets now look like they were “easy buys,” I assure you, they were NOT…I don’t care which of these recommendations you want to single out, I don’t care how loud I was screaming it, NOBODY wanted to buy ANY of them…

I have reposted all of the above not to make me look smart, but simply to drive home my point that when all the “logic” in the media is generating either massive FEAR…or conversely, “It’s all good” euphoria, IS when you need to be going in the opposite direction…And right now, with what I perceive as semi-unanimous bullishness about EVERYTHING, I think it absolutely argues for being on the Short Side…again, almost across the board.

In my mind, the biggest “obstacle” in the markets right now is not the two wars (old news) and not what the Fed will do (that argument has been beaten to death), but plain and simple…the very much unknown and potentially dire consequences of the upcoming election. However you feel about the candidates, I’d say that there is no big money out there that doesn’t view this as being the most pivotal election for the economy and the country that we’ve had in decades…and THEY DON’T KNOW WHICH WAY IT’S GOING TO GO…AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS “BIG MONEY” WILL BE, OR ALREADY IS, MOVING TO THE SIDELINES, IN BOTH THE ECONOMY AND IN THE MARKETS…WHICH I BELIEVE GENERALLY LEADS TO ONLY TWO POSSIBILITIES…SIDEWAYS OR DOWN…AND NOT UP.

To be clear, for bull markets to keep climbing, they DO have to have an ongoing and uninterrupted stream of buying coming in…And if, at any point, that buying stops, or pauses, the market does NOT go any higher…It’s an oversimplification but bull moves initially stop because the buying has “run out,” and thereafter, if there are “no buyers,” even the smallest quantity of selling can start the market heading lower…which per the Dow Jones (which I consider to be THE best indicator of stock market direction), I think this is already beginning to happen…For sure, what all the hot tech stocks and growth stocks are doing is important, but, for me, going back forever, if those 30 Dow Companies ain’t “doing it,” something is wrong somewhere…And SINCE MY MARCH 6 NEWSLETTER: We Have Exited All Long Positions in the Stock Indices…Equities have dipped, and then rallied to new highs in the S&P and NASDAQ…but THE DOW JONES IS ACTUALLY ABOUT 1% LOWER…which, when combined with my very strong view that all those ever-wrong shills on Wall Street ARE saying nothing but, ”Buy! Buy! Buy!”, everything or anything, DOES LEAD ME TO CONCLUDE THAT THE NEXT BIG EVENT IN THIS INVESTMENT GAME IS STOCKS GOING DOWN…And no, I’m not calling for the end of the world, and I have no particular downside target in mind, but am just saying that, by the time we get to the election, I THINK THE STOCK MARKET WILL HAVE HAD SOME DEGREE OF A VERY PAINFUL SELLOFF.

 THE MARKET TO BUY NOW…?

And with all that money leaving (selling) Stocks, and all of those other recently hot markets Wall Street is recommending…and with inflation truly heading down…and with maybe even some political and economic fear setting in…and maybe even with the Fed suddenly being scared into shifting HARD towards easing…I CONTINUE TO SEE TREASURY BONDS---THE SAFEST PIECE OF INVESTMENT PAPER ON PLANET EARTH---AS A MAJOR, MAJOR BUY.

In other words, and with this newsletter already WAY too long, I’m just going to leave it at this: DO THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT ALL THE TALKING HEADS ARE YAPPING ABOUT. SELL EVERYTHING…AND BUY TREASURY BONDS.

And I have to add, and it IS telling…In spite of my continued very strong opinion…with Bonds now well off their lows, I still do not have a single person who wants to be long this market. Not ONE…And BELIEVE ME…THAT IS AN EXTREMELY BULLISH INDICATION.

Somebody surprise me.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Bonds