June 11, 2024

 Still a Big, Big Short…

And still…Just Getting Started

After just completing 8 consecutive lower closes, followed by a normal 3 day bounce, August Soybeans “quietly” closed into new 6 week lows today. I think this market is RIGHT NOW dead set on taking out the 2 ½ year CONTRACT LOWS that are only 23 cents away…which, when you get down to it, makes NEW CONTRACT LOWS AN ANY DAY NOW POSSIBILITY…as in tomorrow.

As I have previously documented, MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, from now going forward, Soybeans (and Corn) have frequently made sharp 20-30% declines over the next 4-8 weeks. I think this year will be no different...

Also, during the past 43 years I have literally studied a million charts, and whether my experience is worth anything or not, I will tell you that I view the August 2024 Soybean contact, which very much resembles the August, 2018 contract, as BEING THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE SITUATION I KNOW OF IN TRADING…and per my very strong conviction, my expectation IS that Soybeans are NOW beginning a roughly $3.00 decline ($15,000 per futures contract) that will be completed before this contract goes off the board.

It goes without saying that just because I have a strong opinion does NOT mean I will be right, and if I am not you will almost certainly lose money, but I will pretty much take this chart, and this trade, every time it comes around, irrespective of the market involved.

I LOVE THIS SET UP. If you are not on it, I urge you to get on now…And if you already do own it, I suggest you add to your position (hopefully here with me…and not somewhere else…based on my research).

I can’t say this any louder than I have been doing…And I know I cite my 4 decades of experience too often, but the fact that I barely have had a single farmer who agrees with me enough to be on this idea speaks VOLUMES…Typically what happens is AFTER prices have really gone in the tank I start getting phone calls asking, “How low do you think they can go?” and/or “Do you think I should I get some puts here?”, and THAT’S WHAT IT’S LIKE WHEN WE ARE FINALLY CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM…AND BELIEVE ME, THAT IS NOT THE SENTIMENT THAT’S OUT THERE RIGHT NOW…I keep saying it…The price decline we’ve had has obviously got some people discouraged, but still, that idea, “Are we close to, or have made, the bottom?” is STILL all over the place…and that if anyone is even thinking “the bottom,” it ain’t. It never is.

GET ON THIS!!!!! Pick up the phone and GO WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING…For sure, as always, I might be dead wrong, but the potential numbers here are not wishful thinking…Again, as I keep documenting, they have more or less been the NORM going back for decades.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

 The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans, Corn