June 6, 2016
Ignore all the talking heads.
Ignore the brokerage house analysts.
BUY THE STOCK MARKET NOW.
I have said it forever…When a market is on its highs and there is any noticeable degree of doubt as to that market moving higher…ESPECIALLY IN THE STOCK MARKET…It generally means you should be buying.
Friday’s MEANINGLESS one month employment number indicating “only” 38,000 new jobs were created in May has been widely taken as the latest talking heads “reason” to NOT buy the stock market.
As I have repeatedly been expressing the reasons for my bullish stock market opinion since January, I am not going to speak at length here regarding my ROCK SOLID opinion that the economy…and stocks…are absolutely on the rise…and in a BIG way.
HOUSING & REAL ESTATE VALUES ARE RISING (AND PROBABLY GOING TO ACCELERATE DRAMATICALLY IN THE COMING YEAR). COMMODITY PRICES ARE RISING. INFLATION IN PRICES AND WAGES IS COMING (BOTH ARE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS)…AND STOCKS AND THE ECONOMY ARE LEADING THE WAY.
The stock market and the economy have been growing steadily since the dark, dark, dark days of March, 2009…Do you remember how TERRIFIED and financially deflated EVERYBODY really was?...At any rate, during the past eight years, with GDP having risen 27% (about 3.3% annually), the unemployment rate having dropped from 10% (!!!) to 4.7%, and with the Dow having gone up some 11,000 points …even so, the financial media has basically been on balance NEGATIVE for probably 95% of those 100 months since the recovery began…and in fact, the ONLY times they have shifted to a bullish stance was immediately prior to several of the occasional sharp sell offs that have occurred (all of which immediately rebounded and only served to make those nitwits bearish again)...I don’t care whether it’s the brokerage houses, or the latest internet hot shot, or the usual suits that chatter away on the biz channels…The overwhelming majority of those people have been bearish all the way up…which I have noted and written about countless times since August, 2010.
So…I will here tell you, put your own ear to the ground…I KNOW THERE MUST BE SOMEBODY OTHER THAN MYSELF, BUT DO YOU REALLY HEAR ANYONE SCREAMING, “BUY IT NOW!”…OR…DO YOU HEAR THE SAME C-R-A-P (examples of which are below from just the past few days) THAT HAS BEEN OUT THERE FOR THE PAST 8 YEARS?
The stock market is a buy. If you want more of my reasons, they can all be found in my newsletter archives. Just open any newsletter that references Treasury Bonds, Stocks or the economy:
Here are some charts…
Sometimes, when a market is perceived as “high”, the notion that you should buy it can be “disconcerting”, as, after all, it ALREADY is HIGH…However, and I say this slightly tongue-in-cheek, but if this had been an investor’s perspective for the last 35 years, when you consider that the 1000 mark used to be HIGH for the Dow Jones, they probably would have never bought ANY stocks…EVER…while the market was making something like a 16,000 point three decade advance…Nevertheless, with this in mind, one old visual trick I have personally used throughout the years is to invert charts (turn them upside down) to get a better feel for where I think they could go…which is what I have done with the next chart here…
And here is the September contract right side up…
Short the Bond Market.
I believe an absolute economic BOOM is coming…
and right along with it we will see 4+% INFLATION…
AND THIS WILL DEVASTATE THE BOND MARKET.
I AM PRETTY SURE LAST FRIDAY’S “WEAK ECONOMY” (supposedly) JOBS NUMBER RAN ANY LAST SHORTS TOTALLY OUT OF THE BOND MARKET…AND WITH THIS LAST GASP 2 POINT UP DAY (on Friday) I BELIEVE THE ODDS HAVE NOW MOVED SHARPLY HIGHER THAT IT IS NOW (AND I MEAN TODAY) TIME FOR A SEVERE AND NON STOP MOVE LOWER TO BE GETTING UNDERWAY.
I see the bond market as having gone through an erratic topping formation for the past 15 months…but I firmly believe that process is OVER...And now is the perfect time to get short this market…You define your risk…Buy the puts…and let it happen (for starters) until we get to 2017.
As many of you know, this market is where I have made more correct calls…by FAR…for the past 30 odd years than in any other market…And it doesn’t mean I will be right…BUT I DO CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE BIGGEST BOND TRADE I HAVE EVER SEEN…
LONG TERM INTEREST RATES ARE NOT STAYING AT THESE HISTORICALLY LOW LEVELS.
Don’t just sit there thinking, “ I wonder if he’s right”. Pick up the phone and do something with this…
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Mini Dow Jones, Treasury Bonds