May 22, 2024

I don’t care what year it is, at this time of year, when Corn and Soybeans OFTEN make their 20-25% break to the downside, NOBODY is EVER remotely expecting or predicting it. And I will state that…in my own mind…as a FACT…NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY, EVER SEES IT COMING…simply because that’s the way this futures game works…over and over and over.

Right now, and I mean right now, I regard ANY down day as potentially being the beginning of the sharp collapse I have been looking for.

Nobody EVER rings a bell that tells you, “Get short now.” This just starts to happen, literally, from one obscure, eventless day to the next…And one more time, in EVERY one of these Soybean examples that follow…same as all the Corn charts I provided last Friday…I ASSURE YOU THAT THE CROWD CONSENSUS WAS NOTHING BUT BULLISH AS THE DECLINES WERE HAPPENING…And as I keep telling you, pretty much the whole ag world is totally on board with the idea that prices have bottomed…And again, that is NOT the way the markets work.

The thing about futures is that even super-traders will tell you that you NEVER know what’s coming…But they will also tell you that BIG SURPRISES TO THE MASSES ARE THE NORM…And if you are at all in touch with the basic crowd consensus in Corn and Soybeans, you should KNOW that the overwhelming majority of opinion is NOT looking for what you see on the charts above or in the 50 year Corn histories shown in my last newsletter.

 My very strong recommendation, right here, as we head into JUNE, is to buy puts in both of these markets as one “unit,” and then plan on staying with them until at least mid-August. It does not mean I will be right, and if I am wrong you could lose every dollar you invest, but I honestly do not think it gets any more high probability than this.

JUST GO WITH THE DOWNTRENDS BOTH MARKETS ARE IN…AND ALL THOSE HISTORIES.

About $2800 per unit…Do the math yourself as to what that can work out to…if I am only moderately right in my opinion.

Every bear market has periodic rallies…that inevitably convince the “hoping” masses that a bottom has been made…And when they DO occur, what you are SUPPOSED to do is SELL.

I urge you to take advantage of these dual rallies and GET SHORT HERE.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans, Corn