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May 7, 2022

The Trade of a Lifetime?

All of the research I do is aimed at finding what I think will be profitable trades that I can present to my clients…but I also do it for myself.

I have no bullish or bearish bias towards any market. All I am ever trying to do is figure out what the direction will be…and if the move I anticipate has large
profit potential. At times I am just dead wrong…at times just early…and sometimes I look like a trading genius.

In the end though, what I AM after is VERY big trades…and it certainly does not mean I am going to be right with this one…but after 42 years of some very big hits, and some very big misses, during the past week I have come to the conclusion that my recommendation to short Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, and Wheat, as one unit, has evolved into being what I consider to be THE TRADE OF MY LIFETIME.

It may be a stupid statement to make, but my opinion is that is just about impossible for these markets to remain at their current levels…and that all of them WILL get clocked for a minimum of 30% of their top tick values…and that the odds are now EXTREMELY high that ALL FOUR OF THESE MARKETS HAVE RECENTLY MADE THEIR HIGHS…for YEARS to come.

I have taken a beating with this idea for some time now, but as of last week, I became more short than I have been at any time since I first started calling for this MAJOR, MAJOR TOP IN THE ROW CROPS…And while I might lose every dollar I now have on the table, I am in this with GRAND SLAM INTENTIONS. As I have documented going back for 50 years, when these markets do turn down, it IS fairly RELENTLESSLY for 25-35%, and with the mountains of hot, speculative funds sloshing around the markets on the LONG side, my targets for each of these markets ARE on in the 30-35% range.

Again, this does not mean I’ll be right, and if I am wrong it will certainly mean losing money, but I honestly cannot put it any stronger.

If you think what I am doing makes sense, and have both the risk capital…and the mentality to accept the risk of losing it all (some people just don’t)…I URGE YOU TO NOT TRY TO BE TOO PERFECT, OR TO LOOK FOR SOME GREAT “SIGN” THAT ASSURES YOU THAT THE TIMING IS RIGHT…AND CONTACT ME ASAP ABOUT GETTING POSITIONS ON. My view is still that ANY given day IS the actual beginning of the collapse (like Cotton dropping 11 cents in 2 days), and nobody, myself included, is going to predict it that closely.

The last thing I’ll say before all the charts is that there are any number of ways to go about doing this…including futures, and including going out into 2023, and including going for more leverage with out-of-the-money options…The first thing you really need to decide is how much money you want to commit…and then we can take it from there as how to place it.

ALL IN. For real.




Why DO markets suddenly stop…and reverse, in a matter of weeks or months, back to MUCH lower levels?

Because all it takes is for every possible commodity buyer/end user to have been scared (by a tsunami of unanimously ROARING bullish press) into buying 150% of what they need for the next few months…However, there are STILL sellers out there, EVERY day, but with everybody on the buy side having already loaded up, the reality ( and I mean reality) is that there is a vacuum of buyers under the market…that when orders come in to sell, because every possible buyer HAS ALREADY BOUGHT, those sellers can only find buyers at lower and lower levels…with the quite common result often being that the shock of those lower prices spurs even more selling…by both producers and longs getting out…thus leading to more selling, and before you know it, that market IS down 25-30-35%...and really, as I keep reiterating, off NO NEWS AT ALL.

And believe me, as the world’s biggest importers, the Chinese are NOT stupid and fully understand that if they back off as buyers for 2-3 months (or more), in all likelihood, they will be able to resume their buying at MUCH more attractive prices. I have seen them do it before…where all the analysts keep saying, “When China buys…,” and the Chinese pretty much DISAPPEAR for VERY long periods of time. Again. They are NOT stupid.


Enough talk. Here are the options I would recommend at current levels.



So all four work out to about $8500. You can do the math as to the results if all four hit…or all four miss.

If you want to just go with a couple of them…I’d say make it the Corn and Soybeans…and yeah, if you just want to zero in on one, it would be the Soybean Complex…using a combination of the Soybean contract…and the Soybean Oil.

Give me a call if you think this makes sense, you have the cash, and think the risk is worth the potential reward…And DON’T just WATCH this happen…or be thinking, “I’m going to short the hell out of it when it gets up to…__$’s.” Just do it now.





All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, Soybean Oil, Wheat.

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