April 18, 2024

In Soybeans and Corn…

Here comes the hammer…

Swayed by analyst’s ongoing bullishness for the past two years, farmers are still sitting on MASSIVE Corn and Soybean stocks and STILL hoping for a chance to sell their crops into the next big rally all those same analysts have continued to predict as coming sooner or later…But, at some point, FARMERS DO HAVE TO SELL THOSE MOUNTAINS OF GRAIN…and however much they wish otherwise…they typically find themselves, all together at the same time, selling/dumping their crops into a falling (NOT rising) market…thus producing the sharp 1-2 month 20-25% Corn and Soybean crashes that I have repeatedly documented as being the norm for at least the past 40-50 years.

Futures ARE volatile…and they DO GO UP AND DOWN IN LARGE PERCENTAGES...and while markets can meander and drift sideways for lengthy periods, they finally DO either surge or crash…seemingly out of nowhere (to the average wrong-way analysts and squawking heads anyway) and DO pop in one direction for 20-30% or more…and THAT IS WHERE I SWEAR WE FINALLY ARE IN BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS.

As a famous trader once noted, “It’s not what price you get in at…High or low, it doesn’t matter…It’s WHEN you get in,” and I am 150% of the opinion that the “when” is  NOW…that Soybeans and Corn, ARE, as I have been forecasting, NOW truly just beginning relatively straight down moves that take Soybeans to the  $9.00 area…and Corn to $3.25.

Here are 3 trading rules I have on the wall in front of me…irrespective of what the market might be…and they all precisely describe Soybeans and Corn (charts following) RIGHT NOW.

THERE IS NOTHING THAT MATTERS MORE THAN THE CHART. ANYTHING YOU HEAR, OR READ, OR FEEL IS IRRELEVANT TO WHAT THE CHART “SAYS”, AND GENERALLY, THE DIRECTION IT IS POINTING.

THE BEST WAY IS GOING WITH IT.

LOOK FOR RANGE TRADE SETUPS THAT PUT YOU IN A POSITION TO WIN BIG. THERE IS NO BETTER TRADE, ESPECIALLY ON THE SHORT SIDE.

Trading is about educated guesses and calculated risks…AND…in my view, going for grand slams when the opportunity seems to be presenting itself…and that IS what I see here…As always, I might be dead wrong, which means losing money if that is the case…but I will take this “range trade setup” 100 times in a row when I see it…I totally think it is now crash-and-burn time in both of these markets…and DO see the potential for making a major, major hit…and in a fairly short window of time.

I URGE you to call me and do something with it…

July Soybean Puts

July Corn Puts

Do them both as a “unit”…maybe 2 Corn and 1 Soybean for $2642…or whatever…

BUT JUST DO THEM…Stop just watching this happen…We’ve had a little sideways for the past 6-8 weeks and are now MOVING…Go WITH this.

Get on!!!

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans, Corn