March 25, 2024

 See the money in these two markets…

See the risk – which is to lose 100%

See what the dollar gains really could be.

Obviously you never “know” anything in this business but there are times when that’s what it feels like…And that is where I am with these two ideas. I KNOW where I want to be and I view the odds for quite large gains as being VERY high in both of them.

Still roaring bullish in Cotton

Right here. Right now.

Cotton just looks set to rocket out of here…and I DO know that basically NOBODY in the Cotton business is even the slightest bit bullish...QUITE the contrary. They ALL were selling down in the low 80’s and totally missed the 20 cent rally that we caught…And they are STILL bearish…

For the time being, I think it IS heading at least into the 120’s…but also realize that in today’s wild ass big money speculative environment, it could get much, much bigger than that.

And EXTREMELY BEARISH in Cattle

And I KNOW that the whole cattle world has one mantra now, “Smallest herd in 73 years,” with everybody in that business saying the same thing, that “Cattle will be good for a couple of years.” BUT…THE BULL MARKET IN CATTLE ENDED LAST YEAR…beginning with the big 10 week sell offs in Live Cattle and Feeders that totally surprised them all…scared them to death…and then made them hopeful and optimistic again by rallying 2/3 of the way back up for the past three months…But I FIRMLY BELIEVE THOSE RALLIES HAVE ENDED…AND ARE ROLLING OVER…AND HEADED VISCIOUSLY SOUTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT YEAR…

And I KNOW I want to be short and stay short both Feeders and Fats (Live Cattle). And as I have said before, in my opinion, there is nothing nastier in Futures than what you get when Cattle are going down.

JUST BE SHORT HERE…Any contract, any month you want to pick…JUST BUY PUTS AND FORGET THEM…I might be dead wrong, and if I am, it will certainly mean losing whatever you invest, but I see the leverage here being as big as it ever gets in the markets.

Be Short this Market

And this too…

And to be clear…I really do think we are going MUCH lower than I have drawn it on the chart above…That somewhere in the near future, with beef prices having fallen, NOBODY will want to go buy FEEDER calves and start PAYING EVERY DAY to fatten them out on a feedlot for 4-5 months.

My recommendation is to buy all three options as one unit…which totals out to about $5100…If I am dead wrong, you will lose the entire $5100…Otherwise, if  both markets only make what I would regard as decent moves, hitting $40,000 is not a pipe dream possibility…It’s all just math, and based on NORMAL market percentage moves…and how the numbers work if the trade is working…AND if you are able to just sit and let the market GO.

It may sound stupid, but I think that what comes next in both of these markets is somewhat OBVIOUS…But to collect, you have to put the money on the table.

Call if you want to go.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Cotton, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle