February 24, 2021

 I am pretty much “All in” on this…

The commodity markets have really been going nuts of late…with stout bull moves continuing in just about every major market we trade…And the truth is, I have never seen the markets as hot as they have been for the past 3-6 months, whether it be in Stocks, Bonds, or Commodities…or yes, Bitcoin.

One sector, however, the Cattle Complex, has remained relatively quiet…going nowhere while all of these other markets were roaring…BUT MY SENSE IS THIS IS ABOUT TO CHANGE…I HAVE BEEN MAKING THIS RECOMMENDATION FOR A WHILE NOW, WHICH HAS BEEN COSTING US MONEY…BUT MORE SO THAN EVER, I THINK THE CATTLE MARKET IS NOW PRIMED TO EXPLODE ON THE UPSIDE.

To begin with, there are charts below of the stunning bull moves that have been taking place in 9 other markets…just during the past  6 months or so…and my bottom line is: I BELIEVE THE SAME THING IS ABOUT TO FINALLY HAPPEN IN CATTLE.

All markets have their own “cycles” and I have long noted that the Cattle Complex often seems to move at a different pace from everything else…This is just an observation and I can barely guess why…except to say that this is a live animal, that to go from gestation to birth, and then through full growth to slaughter, takes several years (quite unlike Hogs)…which is obviously unlike planting a crop, or mining, or refining, or cutting timber…or whatever…Like I said though, I don’t know why Cattle are often not “in sync” with the other markets…so all I can really say is, they just are…And beyond that, to suggest that with the whole world focused on all of these other “hot” markets, for this and other reasons, I think this is the perfect time for them to start streaking out of the gate…

At any rate…Here’s a quick chart look at what has been going on in those other markets…In net price changes, and more importantly, in what percentages they have been fairly SKYROCKETING…And yes, I AM POSITIONING WITH THE IDEA THAT SOMETHING OF THE SAME WILL BE HAPPENING IN CATTLE…SPECIFICALLY, I AM AGGRESSIVELY NOW BUYING FEEDER CATTLE.

And then I look at this…Feeder Cattle during the same 6-7 month time frame…having only traded sideways…And can only think: What is wrong with this picture?…Or…THIS IS THE NEXT BULL MARKET.

I might be dead, dead wrong but I DO believe that the Cattle Complex is on the verge of truly lifting off…And with the costs of virtually every commodity on the planet having skyrocketed (including the energy and feed necessary to raise Cattle), I cannot imagine that Feeders are just going to sit here SIDEWAYS any longer at all…especially when you throw in all the congressional and monetary stimuli that are currently being added to an economy that I believe is ALREADY heating up as vaccinated consumers scream out of their houses to begin living again…which DOES, I might add, include going to the 1000’s of restaurants that were closed and are now reopening again.

As I pointed out last Spring with my “Buy Everything” recommendation, and will reiterate today: Thanks to the Fed, the markets are just FLOODED with funds, and that avalanche of liquidity has been (and is) a MAJOR factor in driving prices higher…And when you then combine that massive funding with the LATEST stimulus Congress is providing? I JUST THINK IT ADDS FUEL TO THE FIRE.

I THINK THE CATTLE MARKET IS NOW THE MOST UNDERVALUED COMMODITY ON THE BOARD…This may sound stupid, but given the current circumstances and economically hot environment, I honestly cannot imagine them going down from here AT ALL…And aside from that, I also cannot imagine them going sideways any longer…So that just leaves one thing: UP…and I think it is UP BIG.

Here’s the long term look…

And here’s what I would recommend doing at current levels…

And just for the record…To me, there is no more bullish chart than the one you see below…It does NOT mean it will work but this looks like a extremely well defined Head & Shoulders Bottom…with an equally well defined ascending triangle since the October lows…I WOULD ALSO ADD (to those of you who “know” Cattle), WITH CORN HAVING BEEN ROARING HIGHER, THE FACT THAT FEEDERS ARE STILL ON THEIR HIGHS IS AN INDICATION OF HOW STRONG THIS MARKET ACTUALLY IS…IN OTHER WORDS, WITH CORN HAVING GONE STRAIGHT UP, FEEDERS SHOULD HAVE GONE IN THE TANK…AND THEY ABSOLUTELY DID NOT.

The smart way…

 Or you can just Buy the Calls…

If you think THIS idea makes sense, call me and DO something with it…

And even though the sideways action in this market has been eating us alive recently…I think that is about to change in a VERY big way…

As always, I might be dead wrong about everything here, which can mean losing every dollar you invest, but this one? I THINK THIS LOOKS BIG. VERY BIG. And I would love to just own this…and honest to God…not even see it for the next two months.

Thanks for reading…Pick up the phone guys.

 Bill

 770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Feeder Cattle