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February 18, 2009
Short Cattle - Now.
"They won't stay here."
I think there is a strong chance the bottom is about to
fall out of the cattle market. After moving sideways for roughly
the past three months (maybe a normal pause after a 25-30 cent decline?) the
last few days of trading have presented a look I believe portends
a dramatic, perhaps fairly straight down, 15 to 20 cent collapse in prices.
Furthermore, with cattle now dead on their lows, this is the perfect place
to a assume this market is either ready to rebound, at a minimum for 5 to 7
cents, or, they are rolling off a cliff...In other words, this is also the
perfect place to make the statement, "They won't stay here", and establish
positions using the "2 & 1" strategy...
Without going into any great detail, even though
cattlemen keep citing (for months on end now) "tight supplies", I think the
current economy is totally demand disastrous for beef consumption and
absolutely the LAST thing I would be expecting is for meat prices to be
going up at the supermarket. The average American is hurting financially,
scared to death and cutting back on anything resembling a luxury, which when
compared to pork or chicken, is exactly what steak represents...nor are
people flocking to restaurants...
Simply stated, although anything can happen in this
stuff, the chart below looks poised to break down hard and my own
intent is to aggressively try to go with it...
It goes without saying I may be dead wrong about
everything I think here.
Give me a call if you are interested...and if you are,
the sooner the better (or so I think).
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
Following today's dead low close, down 1.30 cents ($520)
they simply look ready to go one way or the other...
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