January 27, 2024

Cumulatively, Wheat, Corn and Soybeans, have been sucking money away from farmers for months on end now…with Wheat having led the way, then Corn became the hardest hit, and now? I think the biggest downside velocity is beginning to be in Soybeans…

Interestingly, even though all three markets have been in bear markets for the past 18 months, I still don’t think I’ve heard a single analyst refer to them as such (MAYBE in Wheat after it had dropped by 50% in value), and in fact, all I ever seem to hear are references to “next support” (inferring a turn back up), and “possibly bullish weather,” or “when exports pick up,” etc. and nothing suggesting that, “Hey, these markets could be going down a LOT more…and for a long time,” which IS what I’ve been saying for at least for the past 18 months.

And now, with all three markets on their lows, what I hear, everywhere, is that same “we-must-be-close-to-the-bottom” mentality from analysts that has been there all the way down since the Spring & Summer 2022 highs…And the “One thing I know” is this: WHEN ANY MARKET IS ON ITS LOWS, AND THERE IS ANYBODY EVEN WONDERING IF WE’RE AT, OR CLOSE TO, THE BOTTOM…IT IS NOT. To put it another way, if we WERE at the bottom, in Soybeans for example, you’d be hearing, “They’re headed $2.00 lower!,” and NOT, “There’s support at $12.00,” or “We’re at the low end of a trading range.” For as long as I’ve done this…When you ARE at the bottom, NOBODY will be saying it…And I don’t exaggerate. I mean NOBODY.

With all three markets having been in bear markets for 18 months, it is notable that Soybeans (analysts' bullish FAVORITE forever) have not matched the declines in Wheat and Corn...YET. As analysts and farmers give up, and SELL, I do think Soy will catch up and we WILL see $9.00.

THESE ARE BEAR MARKETS…FOR OVER 18 MONTHS NOW…THAT ARE FAR FROM OVER…

Soybeans are now leading the collapse lower…

Get short NOW. You have not “missed it,” and I think the next $2-$3 are going to be very much the way I have drawn it…RELATIVELY STRAIGHT DOWN, with very few pauses and/or brief rallies. One more time…There are billions of bushels still needing to be sold…and I firmly believe smart buyers, like China, are just going to sit on their hands and let it happen on the downside…Wouldn’t you.

 Do this…

 Or this…

Depending on Sunday night’s/Monday morning’s open these prices may be quite different…especially if farmers, who possibly could NOT sell to elevators this weekend without the futures markets being open, are there in heavy selling numbers when the markets DO reopen…We’ll see…In any case, I REMAIN VERY BEARISH AND URGE YOU TO GET ON HERE WITH ME…One more time, this BEAR MARKET is far from over.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans, Corn