Croker-Rhyne Co., Inc.

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Welcome to the website, which, in all honesty, serves as a sales tool in my capacity as a commodity futures broker. What you'll find here are very specific opinions, research and recommendations on whatever markets I am currently trading...I consider myself to be a relatively smart, extremely experienced trader with fairly decent instincts, but in this business of predicting the future, there is no way to avoid sometimes looking like an idiot...and I promise you I have done so many times, and probably will many times more. Fortunately, however, I do at times "get it right" (some brokers never do), and when I do, as a function of my typical approach/objectives, substantial profits can easily be the result...Obviously, when I am wrong, the impact on your wallet can be very much the opposite...At any rate, what I present here is the opportunity to decide whether you think the commission I charge is worth what I bring to the table. As I said before, this site is a sales tool, so if you are a qualified investor and have any interest whatsoever in what I am doing, do not hesitate to call.

Croker Rhyne Co., Inc., established in 1992, is affiliated as an Introducing Broker with ADM Investor Services, Inc., meaning ADMIS holds all funds, provides floor services and generates all brokerage statements.

My perspective is based in the idea that each year most of the major futures markets will experience large percentage moves, usually over a 6-9 month period, some of which I try to participate in with what might be considered a "passive" approach. While there will always be numerous bull and bear markets I miss, my objective is to find those situations which fit certain parameters and personal preferences developed in trading the markets since 1980. I  then generally recommend six to twelve month long options positions, which, once established, we want to "forget about". I have no bias toward either the long or short side of the markets. I am simply looking for "set ups" I have seen many times before. If I recommend a position, it is with the idea the payoff will be at least four to five times your investment. It goes without saying, when I am wrong, you will probably lose money.

 

Here is a bit of guide to how I approach the markets....

A Basic Philosophy 
&
The Both Sides Strategy

My bias as a trader is very much (but not exclusively) toward the technical side with my preferred trading vehicle being the purchase of options on futures, with a typical trade having a three to nine month perspective. What follows is a brief description of the Both Sides Strategy I often employ to take positions....All references to gains and losses are made with the understanding I am using long options strategies only.

If you trade futures, whoever you are, much of the time you are going to be on the wrong side of the market. My approach to trading assumes we are definitely going to be wrong some of the time.

Futures are inherently volatile...and my perspective is, what we are really trading is volatility. All the markets will have periods of sideways action, but all of the markets are frequently trying to move up, or down. Your objective is to be going with them when they are really going somewhere.

Futures are highly leveraged. Get on the right side of something which is truly moving and high percentage gains can be a function of that leverage. It goes without saying that same leverage can also lead to high percentage losses.

Buying Futures Options allows you to be on both sides of the market at the same time.  Just what it says. You can buy options in both directions and whichever way the market goes (if it does move), one side will generally benefit from it, one side will not. Of course, if it doesn't move, neither side will benefit, and you will probably lose money.

Select markets which have done nothing for a long time.   If a market has been trading sideways for quite some time, probabilities "should be" (anything is possible in the futures markets) better it is soon going to move somewhere. Long sideways move are often followed by large directional moves.

Or select markets at price levels at which you can make the statement, " It will not stay here, and, in  fact, should move a long way from here, one way or the other".  As an example, you might look at a market making the same high for the fifth or six time in six months and say, "I don't know which way it's going, but it's not going to be right here six months frm now". Obviously, it could be, but, again, probabilities "should" favor it moving away from this old high, and this move could be either substantially up, or down.

When you find something you like, put your money on it, but buy some options going opposite your opinion. This goes against everything you will feel. You think you are right or you wouldn't be making the trade. Most of the time, my recommendations are in units of two calls to every put for bullish opinions, or two puts to every call for bearish opinions.

There are then three major scenarios....

1. The market does move, only it goes the wrong way.   Your objective is then to sell the options you purchased as "insurance", as well as those representing your opinion, (whatever they are worth), when, and if, you are able to put most, or all, of your investment back in your pocket. Our experience is, when most people (ourselves included) are wrong, they are very wrong. Not only does the market not move in the direction they anticipated, many times it goes exactly opposite their opinion in a big way. We find, if we are wrong, using this strategy, even a moderate move the wrong way may get you most, or all, of your money back. Obviously, it must repeatedly be noted that if the market does not move in either direction, you easily might lose 100% of your investment, including all of the costs (commissions & fees) associated with buying or selling the options.

2. If you are truly right in the market, you will lose the money you spent on insurance, but you will probably not miss it. If you are right, as a function of the leverage you work with, you have an excellent chance to make enough on the trade to see the insurance, in my opinion, as only a relatively small cost of doing smart business.

3. If the market you enter continues to go sideways, you stand a good chance of losing on both sides. If you get in something which is statistically "due" (in your opinion) to go somewhere, and it still doesn't move during the time you are positioned, you might lose all of your money you have in the trade. But the same trade will still be there and the probability (again, in your opinion) of an impending move may have gone higher. You can put the trade back on by buying options with more time until expiration. Futures are inherently volatile. Sooner or later, they DO move.

Obviously, there are many, many permutations as to how the markets can move, and, consequently, it would be impossible to outline every possible dollar outcome when using this strategy. The approach certainly doesn't guarantee profitability, and it certainly doesn't work all of the time, but you CAN be wrong and still get some, if not all, of your money back off the table  (or, it goes without saying, you can lose every dollar you have invested)....And, when  you are right, in my opinion, you will not miss what you have spent on insurance. 

This is obviously a rough outline of a concept developed over a number of years. There are no specifics here as to how how I make my choices, how I diversify, how I determine what options to buy, or how much time I give a trade, etc... Suffice it to say, over the years, I have drawn thousands of lines, studied thousands of charts and indicators, and finally reduced the trading process to what I think are some fairly simple rules and approaches. If you are interested in finding out more about what I'm about, give me a call. There is no email address listed on this site, as, if posted here, it becomes an incredible magnet for spammers.

Thanks,

Bill Rhyne

866-578-1001
770-425-7241

Kennesaw, Ga.

 
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