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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss
and may not be suitable for everyone. Only risk capital should be used when investing in
the markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for
you in light of your financial condition. The opinions and viewpoints
discussed herein are entirely my own. No
representation is being made that a specific strategy or discipline will
guarantee success or profits. Fundamental factors, seasonal and
weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the
markets. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable
sources; however, individuals acting on this information alone are responsible
for their own actions. This material is, or is in the
nature of, a solicitation.
This newsletter is my sales tool. If you like my ideas
and want to act on them, I would obviously appreciate
having some of your trading done here with me.
For more info or consultation…
Landline 770-425-7241
Cell 770-366-3070
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Thanks…Bill Rhyne
October 8, 2026
Covering various bases here…
Why Crude is going down…
And Treasury Bonds are going up
First up, I continue to believe, that by now, the
world’s oil producers have certainly made logistical adjustments to account for
the Iran WAR’S impeding 20% of the world’s Crude Oil export movement…Also to
note that we are not talking about a 20% reduction in production…just the
shipping…and no matter what the hyped up talking heads might suggest, I view
any reference to a “shortage” as Wall Street sheep-herd-following nonsense.
You
can also be sure that every time, for decades, that we have had one of these
geopolitical events that induce big rallies in energy prices, ALL of the
world’s oil companies have used, and still do use, futures and forward
contracts to lock in those higher prices for as much of their FUTURE production
as they possibly can…In other words, when prices leap higher in what
is a TEMPORARY situation, they DO SELL, HEAVILY, INTO THE RALLY…which is
then followed by their ramping up production (they DO have the oil in the
ground and CAN turn up the pumps anytime they want to) to deliver on those contracts…which
ultimately leads to potentially much lower prices (which doesn’t matter to them
in the big long term picture), as again, they sold that Crude, Diesel, and
Gasoline at elevated levels, PRIOR to the decline.
And I’ll show you this chart again…Because NOTHING affects
inflation any more than rising…and FALLING Crude Oil prices…
Together with the
relationship between Crude Oil and the Inflation Rate, Crude Oil and Treasury
Bonds have also had a very strong correlation (inversely) that goes back for
decades…As can
clearly be seen below, when Crude goes up (inflationary), Bonds tend to go
down…And when Crude goes down (disinflationary), Bonds tend to go up.
This last few weeks’ sell off in
Treasuries has proven me wrong…so far…but my bullish opinion has only grown
stronger. I DON’T THINK THERE IS ANY OTHER PIECE OF PAPER ON THE PLANET
(INCLUDING ANY STOCK OR BOND ANYWHERE) THAT IS A BETTER BUY THAN UNITED STATES
TREASURY BONDS RIGHT NOW.
I LOVE this call option here…And think it can get deep
in-the-money.
I am sidelines in Gold and Silver…
I
HAVE BEEN RESOLUTELY BEARISH GOLD AND SILVER FOR SOME TIME NOW…BUT CURRENTLY
BELIEVE THEY MIGHT BE ABOUT “DONE” ON THE SHORT SIDE. However, I
have no interest in getting long either of them…but do recommend exiting all
short positions here.
SHORT CORN AND SOYBEANS
Back in January, I made the following recommendation:
January 22, 2026
Buy
the Row Crops
THE
MOST UNDERVALUED ASSET CLASS
In
the markets today…
Yep. There are big crops and big
supplies everywhere. But that IS the way it’s been for virtually every
commodity market bottom in history. I don’t care what anybody thinks about what
China will do…or how “expensive” our crops are relative to South America or
anywhere else…or how much acreage will go into any of them…or what
current stocks are relative to history…Plain
and simple, you ignore all the bearish analysis out there (by all of the same
people who were bullish as we went down for the past 3 years) and BUY CALLS IN
ALL FOUR MARKETS,
All four of these crops have traded substantially higher
since then…having all made new highs for the year about 5 weeks ago. They did,
however, all experience various bullish and bearish swings along the way…and I
have been in and out, both long and short, several of them…sometimes on the
right side, sometimes on the wrong side…But going forward from here, I
NOW SPECIFICALLY VIEW CORN AND SOYBEANS AS HAVING TOPPED OUT AND EXPECT TO SEE
THEM TRADE DECIDEDLY LOWER…AT LEAST OUT INTO EARLY SPRING OF 2027…AND RECOMMEND
SHORTING THEM BOTH.
Short Soybeans
Short Soybean Oil
I also am very bearish Soybean Oil…
The long term picture…
Short Corn
SIDELINES IN COTTON
Although it is not always the case, Cotton does have a
tendency to trade in tandem with Corn, Wheat and Soybeans, and while I keep
leaning bullish in Cotton, with my strong bearish opinion in the other row
crops, I am not comfortable being long here in Cotton, especially when I also
note that funds also have a record long position there…as well as the fact the
open interest (total futures contracts) in Cotton is also at record
levels…which argues for a big move soon, in one direction or another. And I
suspect it might be down.
STILL SHORT FEEDER CATTLE
As
I have repeatedly stated, I see the entire last year’s trade as having formed a
MAJOR LONG TERM TOP IN THE CATTLE COMPLEX…and that
true to its historical norm, I look for Feeders to fall relentlessly and
sharply lower out into the middle of 2027. I’m quite certain
that the whole “smallest herd numbers in 75 years” story has LONG since been
built into prices and is therefore basically irrelevant…What is NOT irrelevant
is that everybody who has bought feeders during the past six months is already losing
BIG dollars (unless perfectly hedged and I’d offer that practically no one is),
to the extent that a potentially very large percentage of them are too
financially and psychologically “crippled” to even consider buying any more…the
result being that this market WILL experience pockets of NO BUYERS and plenty
of sellers…which IS the recipe for prices at some point falling relatively
straight down. And if the 50 year histories of Feeders
are any guide, they will fall to levels that 95% of cattlemen currently would
consider almost impossible to believe…but that IS the nature of Feeders, which
in some ways, I believe are THE most speculative commodity investment that
there is.
Here is a put option I like here…Yes, these are expensive,
and costly if I am wrong and you lose, but they also have VERY big potential.
And do understand that a move similar to what I have drawn here would NOT be
big relative to where Feeders are…as well as what a “normal” move can be for
them…
Enough for one day…Some great trades here I think…Contact me
if you want to talk about any of them.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: (currently) Bonds, Soybeans, Soybean
Oil, Corn, Feeder Cattle