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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss
and may not be suitable for everyone. Only risk capital should be used when investing in
the markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for
you in light of your financial condition. The opinions and viewpoints
discussed herein are entirely my own. No
representation is being made that a specific strategy or discipline will
guarantee success or profits. Fundamental factors, seasonal and
weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the
markets. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable
sources; however, individuals acting on this information alone are responsible
for their own actions. This material is, or is in the
nature of, a solicitation.
This newsletter is my sales tool. If you like my ideas
and want to act on them, I would obviously appreciate
having some of your trading done here with me.
For more info or consultation…
Landline 770-425-7241
Cell 770-366-3070
Also…If you would like to
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Thanks…Bill Rhyne
November 7, 2026
Been quiet for 3 weeks
As I was visiting Japan…
First up…I’ve just returned Thursday night from 3 weeks in
Japan, where my younger son (self-employed computer engineer) just married his
Japanese sweetheart, and had the wonderful experience of roaming around a small
part of the country with the newlyweds, my darling wife, and my older son
(particle physicist living in California). With both of the “boys” in their
30’s, and now living far, far away from Mom and Dad, being able to hang
together with them while touring the world is a pleasure that I never expected
to have as a parent, especially here at the ripe old age of almost 77. What a
great time…and what a fascinating country…with a history, look and culture
TOTALLY unlike anything I’ve ever seen in all my wanderings around the
world…and with the Yen at 35 year lows against the US Dollar, it is absolutely
the cheapest industrialized country I’ve ever been in. I mean, everything you
do there is like, “Wow! Is that all I spent?” If you like to travel outside the
USA, definitely put Japan on your list.
But I’m not a travel writer…I am a futures broker and
trader…so I’ll get on with presenting my current market impressions and
recommendations…
Covering all the markets that I have been in recently…
And taking some money off the table…
Obviously, the big news this week is the Demo sweep of
Congress, but the truth is, every position I’ve recommended and/or owned has been seriously moving
in my favor since the day I left town on October 16th…and I therefore spent
most of Friday just taking the money off the table…while at the same time
taking a fresh look this weekend at what I think comes next---which in most
cases, simply stated, is “more of the same.” I THINK STOCKS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL…AS WILL CORN, WHEAT, SOYBEANS, SOYBEAN OIL, AND THE CATTLE COMPLEX…AND I
LOOK FOR TREASURY BONDS TO CONTINUE MOVING HIGHER. AS FOR GOLD, SILVER AND
COTTON, I REMAIN ON THE SIDELINES.
Still Recommend Short the Stock Market
As I have been writing for over a year, I have never seen
the current investment climate more rampantly speculative than it seems to be
now…that both the public and the supposed “pros” have been betting hard on
every latest hot concept that the Wall Street shills have pumped out…be it Chips, AI, Crypto, Data
Centers, Precious Metals, etc. or whatever…to the extent that I can’t help but
believe that EVERYBODY HAS BOUGHT EVERYTHING they can, with every extra dollar
they have, and that now, with everybody already “in,” the next stage we go
through in this investing GAME, is everybody getting “out,” or selling.
Let’s get real. Late last year, you would have been laughed
at if you were predicting that we’d see Bitcoin, Gold and Silver have their
“values” CUT IN HALF within a matter of months…And with this in mind, I’d guess
that, right now, any
suggestion of something similar happening in those 15-20 big name stocks and/or
ETF’s that pretty much EVERYBODY has their piece of would be met with the same
derision…as in losing 50% of their values. And furthermore,
I’d say you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think that could become a reality.
I don’t give two hoots about what their earnings might be, or how big their
order book is, or what their PE might be (an absolutely worthless predictive
statistic in my opinion), or really, ANY of the factors that the Wall Street
“experts” use to justify their perennially wrong opinions…There IS a finite number of
investors that can possibly jump on any hot ticket stock, and once they’ve all
done that, I long ago realized that there IS nowhere else to go but DOWN…with,
as the decline takes place, prices having a total disregard for whatever all
the supposed “fundamentals” might be.
I CONTINUE TO THINK THAT
BUYING JUST ABOUT ANY STOCK UP HERE WILL RESULT IN THE SAME NEGATIVE RESULTS
THAT HAVE BEEN THE CASE IN GOLD, SILVER AND CRYPTO DURING THE PAST YEAR OR
SO…DOWN, OUT…AND NOT RECOVERING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A LONG, LONG TIME.
Just to note that Claude gave
me the following list of 10 STOCKS MOST BOUGHT by
retail customers (the public), as recorded by one major brokerage, during the
month of July…when I’d say, concurrent with the June SpaceX
IPO, the whole AI, Chips & Data Center hype was at its hottest…And
DO know that the public was NOT independently jumping all over these names…NO
WAY. They were absolutely and totally influenced to make those buys in every
single one of these stocks by the brokerage houses and their media machine…
THE TEN MOST BOUGHT NASDAQ STOCKS (FROM ONE BROKERAGE)
SINCE JULY…which is when I think the AI, CHIPS & DATA CENTER FERVOR
AND HYPE WAS HITTING ITS PEAK…LOUD, LOUD, LOUS & CLEAR.
WHEN do the brokerage house shills
EVER say sell? I’d say almost never…which has been the case right here…right
now. Maybe 2 out of every 200 analysts said, “Sell,” before these declines…And
what are those same people doing now? Telling you they “like these bargains,”
or to “remain calm and wait out the storm,” or that the recent action since the
election is “just volatility.” For my money, I think the overwhelming majority
of these stocks (and maybe 20 others) have been hyped to the moon, and now have
become losing trades and about to get worse…or HAVE GONE NOWHERE…IN SPITE OF
ALL THE HEADLINES ABOUT MASSIVE PROFITS AND NEW ORDERS BY THE GAZILLIONS…with
this lack of truly bullish PERMANENT response (not just a 3 day sharp rally
that then reverses), in itself, being something of a red flag.
OK…Enough on stocks…I’VE BEEN BEARISH FOR A LONG TIME…AND AM STILL
BEARISH…JUST MORE SO…AND RECOMMEND BEING SHORT THE STOCK INDICES.
Iran is winning. They just BEAT TRUMP. The
are not going to "make a deal" to save him. The war probably keeps
going, or God forbid, gets worse. Ukraine vs Russia is NOT ending either. So,
together will all the domestic political turmoil on the horizon in the USA as
we head towards the January Congressional turnover...and a whole lot more of
the same happening in Europe, and nobody having any idea of what Trump (and
Miller) will spew out next, it just seems likely to me that what you see
here on the three charts below…is the Stock Market just beginning to rollover
and get going on the downside.
Contact me if you want to do something with
this and we can work out a plan.
Still Recommend Buying the
Treasury Bonds
I am keeping the rest of this brief…or will try to.
In
spite of Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas, and Diesel Fuel continuing to trade higher
(all inflationary), the Bond market has been steadily grinding out an 8 point
rally at the very same time…which, in the face of Oil climbing and inflation
NOT turning down…and the economy continuing to put up strong numbers, according
to “conventional trading wisdom,” should NOT be happening…And the fact that
Bond have continued higher, IS BULLISH.
From 46 years doing this, I KNOW that selling people on
Buying Bonds, when just about everything coming from Wall Street’s geniuses
says, “Rates should be going up and Bonds should be going down!”, makes for a
very hard sell…And as such, only a handful of guys who have been with me in
Bond trades going back to my first option trade in the financial sector in
Spring 1984 (a bottom), have gotten on this trade with me…So I know better than
to waste much time and energy in outlining ALL my reasons to be bullish, but
believe me, I do have them…and I promise you, they are NOT what you are
going to hear from the banking and
brokerage house talking heads.
I DID TAKE 80% OF MY PROFITS HERE AS WELL…BUT
IMMEDIATELY ESTABLISHED NEW POSITIONS, USING HIGHER CALL STRIKE PRICES…AND SOME
CHEAP PUTS…AS THERE IS NO TELLING WHAT SORT OF NEWS YOU KNOW WHO MIGHT GENERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
Call me if you want to talk about this. I DO THINK
BONDS ARE JUST GETTING STARTED AND FIRMLY BELIEVE THE FIRST REAL STOP IN THEM
IS PROBABLY 15-20 POINTS FROM HERE.
Lots of ways to do this, with futures, or futures spreads or
other cheaper (or more expensive) call options. But I can’t do it for you…So
call me if you think I might be right here. Sooner the better I think…
Took profits Friday in Corn,
Soybeans, and Soybean Oil PUTS…but still bearish.
I intend to be right back in
again, short, within the next few days…but standing aside might turn
into weeks before I do reinstate those Short
positions. I still believe Corn, Wheat, and the Soybean Complex still have a
long way to go before they are done on the downside…which could easily take us
into March or so.
TOOK PROFITS AS WELL IN
FEEDERS ON FRIDAY BUT STILL THINK THE CATTLE COMPLEX HAS A LONG, LONG WAY TO
GO…AND EASILY MAY BE HEADING LOWER ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT SUMMER. ALSO TO NOTE
THAT, FOR SIMPLICITY’S SAKE, I RECENTLY SWITCHED MY TRADING FOCUS TO THE
FEEDERS…WHICH TEND TO MAKE BIGGER MOVES THAN THE LIVE CATTLE.
Walking
back into my office on Friday and noting that Feeders had dropped about 38
cents in 8 trading days, it was an easy decision to take the money...I DO
however still see them trading disastrously lower over the 6-9 months...and fully
intend to rather quickly be back on the short side. TRUTH IS, I DON'T REALLY
EVEN THINK THEY'VE MOVED MUCH AT ALL YET...When you get down to
it, they are still inside the topping consolidation that has been forming for
about a year now...And when they finally do break down out of it (which I think
is happening now/soon) there is no telling how far they will go...What I
have often stated is that the Cattle market routinely makes more of the biggest,
dumbest, fastest, almost irrational moves than any other market we trade. And
coming off these massively historical highs, there really is no telling how
nasty it could get to the downside…It’s irrelevant right now, but
trading under $2.00 before the bear market ends would not surprise me at all.
That will sound crazy as shit to cattle people, but I’ll remind you that the
futures markets do NOT have to make any sense at all…I could give you any number
of moves that would substantiate that statement, but I’ll cite one recent
example…when Crude Oil prices temporarily dropped to NEGATIVE $40.00 A
BARREL…and I’m not predicting that in Cattle but simply making the point that
they can EASILY go back to the prices they were at 3-4 years ago…No matter how
many times people bring up that “smallest herd numbers in 75 years” stuff.
I AM STILL SIDELINES IN COTTON BUT PROBABLY EXPECTING IT TO
BE THE FIRST OF THE FOUR ROW CROPS THAT
I WILL BE BUYING. As long as Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat are declining, it
usually makes it difficult for Cotton to rally…
AFTER RECOMMENDING THE SHORT SIDE OF GOLD AND SILVER FOR
MOST OF THIS YEAR, AS POSTED IN MY OCTOBER 8TH NEWSLETTER, I TOOK
PROFITS THERE AND ALSO MOVED COMPLETELY TO THE SIDELINES IN BOTH MARKETS. I
STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE HIGHS IN PRECIOUS METALS FOR YEARS TO
COME, BUT NEAR TERM, CAN SEE THEM JUMPING IN EITHER DIRECTION. If
forced to take a position, I’d lean towards the upside…but not with any big
sort of move in mind…but simply because I have observed that there has been a
fairly massive liquidation of futures contracts in Gold (maybe the biggest I
have ever seen), which “usually” is followed by a rally.
Enough for one day…especially when I am jetlagged like crazy
after returning home on a twelve hour flight, from a
country that was a full half day ahead of us here in Atlanta…which believe me,
after being awake for 26 hours straight (can’t sleep a wink on planes), has
definitely thrown my body clock WAY out of whack. This is going out and I am
hitting the sack…And I WILL be in the office tomorrow if you want to talk
markets…or Japan…which was really incredibly cool.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: All of them