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Thanks…Bill Rhyne
May 7, 2026
The WAR isn’t over…
and I doubt it will be anytime soon…
I suspect that the Iranians, who DO have the upper
hand in TRUMP’S WAR, actually might be interested in allowing the conflict go
on semi-indefinitely, as the longer this blunder goes on, the worse it
is for the man who bombed the you-know-what out of their country, including
doing the equivalent of some foreign nation blowing our White House off the
map, and with it, our president, VP, and the whole cabinet.
And point in fact, the following news excerpts,
taken today, do NOT leave me thinking the Iranian powers-that-be have ANY
intention of backing down…at all…which could mean any ideas of the war “ending”
are not even close to being a reality:
On Wednesday, Supreme Leader
Mojtaba Khamenei’s account on the social media app Telegram posted a message
laying out his vision for the Persian Gulf. The leader called for a “new
regional and global order under the strategy of a strong Iran” where there would
be no place for foreigners “and their mischief.” He specifically pointed to
“using the leverage of closing the strait” as one way to achieve that vision.
At the end of April, a statement
attributed to Khamenei indicated Iran would create the mechanism to supervising
traffic at the waterway. Iran would implement “new legal frameworks and
management of the Strait of Hormuz,” the statement said, which would benefit
its neighbors and prove economically fruitful.
Iran is trying to force
shippers to comply with a new protocol for transiting the Strait of Hormuz — or
risk attack. Tehran has laid out a set of new rules for vessels seeking to
transit the strait, according to a document seen by CNN, pressing ahead with
efforts to formalize control over the waterway in defiance of US warnings.
Entitled “Vessel Information Declaration,” the document is an application form
issued by Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) and must
be completed by all transiting vessels to ensure safe passage.
But the obvious truth is I
have no idea as to how or when this thing is going to end…
What I do think I “know”, however, is that all of the Wall
Street Shills are doing everything they can to convince the public, that
regardless of the war or anything else, it’s up, up and away in Stocks,
Precious Metals and Crypto…which is all a continuation of the same hype they’ve
been pushing since last fall…So I’m going to repeat what I’ve said for
months…That the investing public already is already up to their eyeballs
in its ownership of Hot Stocks, Crypto, and Precious Metals…and that the
majority of those various stocks & markets are now in varying stages of
liquidation…with all of them probably still having a LONG way to go on the down
side.
NEW HIGHS IN THE S&P 500 and THE NASDAQ IS MISLEADING…
Point blank: While a handful of stocks recently took the
NASDAQ & S&P 500 into new highs, I FIND IT SIGNIFICANT THAT THE DOW DID
NOT MAKE NEW HIGHS…AND I BELIEVE IT IS NOW BEGINNNG TO FAIL AND LEAD EVERYTHING
ELSE LOWER. In fact, using AI to determine what are the 20 most widely
held stocks by individual investors, I note that, of those 20
stocks that Wall Street has hyped EVERYBODY into owning, only 6 of them
actually made new highs during this last headline grabbing run by the S&P
and NASDAQ, while the other 14 were basically NO WHERE NEAR their all-time
highs…with many of them being down to the extent that they could be considered
to be in bear markets!
Blow if off if you want to, but think back to all the
SUPERHYPED HEADLINES that were out there six months about NVIDIA, Chips, AI,
Robotics, Crypto, etc…and then note that, aside from
the past few weeks, none of the indices had really gone anywhere…and that the
Dow (representing, I believe, the backbone of the economy) STILL hasn’t even
managed a new high.
YEAH. The financial media and internet squawkheads
are all giddy and hopped up right now, and saying, “Oh, the war doesn’t matter!
It’s all GOOD y’all!” but I disagree. I CONTINUE TO THINK THAT EVERYBODY IS BOUGHT UP TO THEIR
GILLS AND THE NEXT THING WE’LL SEE IS EXTENDED LIQUIDATION,AND
MINIMALLY, 20-25% DOWNSWINGS…BE SHORT THE STOCK INDICES.
Still Short Gold & Silver
Believe me, after 46 years in this business, I know all the
“myths” about what supposedly makes Gold go up…but what you don’t EVER hear
anything about is what makes it go down…which it can and does do…sometimes for
15-20 years at a time…And yeah, there is
a time to buy it, but this idea about, “Oh, it can’t really ever go down much,”
is horse manure…And plain and simple, I will tell you that what DOES make it go
down, is…THE MASSES GETTING OUT…AFTER THEY’VE ALL JUMPED ON HARD, ON THE HIGHS,
AFTER A BIG, BIG RUN AND TONS OF BULLISH HEADLINES.
Take yourself back to January when Gold was HOT, and Silver
was banging through $100…right up to $120…and I’d guess there wasn’t one
brokerage house “strategist” anywhere who wasn’t bullish…And I am dead certain
that not 1 out of 100 of those “analysts” would have imagined that Silver could
drop $60 in a matter of days, while Gold was getting hit for $1000…which, for
the umpteenth time, is “proof,” in my opinion that the markets ARE just a giant
mob psychology game where everybody is betting on pieces of paper and NO VALUE
IS REAL…This shit goes up and down as a function of the masses getting in…and
ultimately GETTING OUT of ideas that are almost TOTALLY, TOTALLY MEDIA DRIVEN.
Maybe I am dead wrong, but my very strong conviction is that
every swinging ___ that would EVER have “speculated” on Gold and Silver had
DONE SO by this past January 29th…and that BOTH GOLD AND SILVER HAVE
NOW ENTERED THE LIQUIDATION PHASE THAT WILL TAKE THEM BOTH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER…
DO NOT BE THINKING,
“He’s STILL short?”
I believe the Cattle market
has reached a “moment of truth,” wherein it is perched up here in the
stratosphere, with the cash market jumping higher, and cattlemen still talking
the “logic” of “the cattle just ain’t there,” and
everybody in the industry thinking, “Nothing can push them down,” and
relatively NOBODY even remotely suspecting that both Live Cattle and Feeder
Cattle could EASILY be down 30-40% this year...and beyond that, be headed even
lower over the course of the next few years…And yeah, I might be dead wrong
(and have been) but THOSE NUMBERS AND TIME FRAMES ARE THE NORM FOR THE CATTLE
COMPLEX…AND MORESO THAN EVER, AND NOT JUST STUBBORNLY SO, I RECOMMEND BUYING
PUTS IN BOTH CATTLE CONTRACTS.
Historically, they DO just
start rolling over from one day to the next, and not necessarily with a bunch
of fireworks, or a big news event, or anyone ringing a bell and saying, ”SELL NOW!” But that IS how they turn and as I’ve written
over and over, there won’t be one “logical” reason to get short when they are
DONE…And while it may be my misguided imagination, when I watched, yesterday,
Crude drop $8-$10, stocks rally almost 1000 points, and Corn (feed) drop 20-25
cents, and talk also be out there again about screwworms at the border, and
leaping cash prices last week representing what I perceive as a massive trap
(we are trading futures, NOT the present)...and Cattle basically did NOTHING on
the upside???? Well, it DOES remind me of Gold and Silver
back at the highs in January.
I MIGHT BE DEAD, DEAD WRONG,
AND IF I AM IT WILL CERTAINLY MEANING LOSING MONEY,
BUT I STILL REGARD THIS AS ONE OF THE BIGGEST COMMODITY SHORT TRADES I HAVE
EVER SEEN.
Buy the puts.
If they make new highs, get out and take another look…But if/when they start
working, FORGET YOU ARE SHORT.
Call me if you want to know
more…
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Stock Indices, Gold, Silver, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle