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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss
and may not be suitable for everyone. Only risk capital should be used when investing in
the markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for
you in light of your financial condition. The opinions and viewpoints
discussed herein are entirely my own. No
representation is being made that a specific strategy or discipline will
guarantee success or profits. Fundamental factors, seasonal and
weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the
markets. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable
sources; however, individuals acting on this information alone are responsible
for their own actions. This material is, or is in the
nature of, a solicitation.
This newsletter is my sales tool. If you like my ideas
and want to act on them, I would obviously appreciate
having some of your trading done here with me.
For more info or consultation…
Landline 770-425-7241
Cell 770-366-3070
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Thanks…Bill Rhyne
September 17, 2026
BUY Treasury Bonds
When it comes to investing in these pieces of paper that
everybody trades, it has been forever true that you should “Buy it when NOBODY
on Wall Street wants it,” which is always difficult to do when seemingly 100%
of the brokerage house shills, “strategists,” analysts and internet talking
heads are ever-so-logically and smoothly telling you not to. But how many times
do you have to see this? When all of the headlines are EVERYWHERE, basically
screaming, “Fire! Head for the exits!”…or in other words, LOUDLY advising
investors, “DON’T buy this!” And yeah…THAT IS THE BOND MARKET TODAY…YOU
BUY IT…precisely when all of the NYC suits are all over the idea that buying bonds
is a HORRIBLE idea right now.
These headlines are perfect examples of how all those
perennially wrong geniuses are thinking…
I mean, really, when you’ve been hearing “rout,” and “danger
zone” and “sounding the alarm” and “bond
market unraveling,” etc. in recent weeks, you would almost think the Bond
market had just totally fallen off a cliff…or conversely, that Bond yields had
just gone TOTALLY through the roof…
But here’s the reality…
BUY LOW?
Here’s the Treasury Bond Futures contract from the same 50 year perspective…
I know that it feels stupid to buy the bond market when ALL
you hear from NYC is, “rates going higher!”…But I will assure you that during
the 1980-2020 bull market (see chart above), at EVERY one of
those 20-30 point upturns that took place, that is exactly the sentiment
that you were hearing everywhere…”Rates going higher! Bonds are garbage!”… I
KNOW, because as anyone who has been reading my over 45 years of research
can attest to, I was buying the bond market over and over and over when pretty
much the entirety of Wall Street was screaming “Sell!” For sure, that
does not mean I will be right this time…and if I am wrong, you will definitely
lose money…but for
my part, on this trade…at this moment…I am ALL IN ON THE BUY SIDE…and
knowing, from those same 45 years of experience, that almost no one will be
interested in joining me as it just goes so completely against just about everything
that is, and will be, out there in the financial media.
And, believe me, I am not just buying because “everybody
else is selling.” Aside from a major factor being that Bonds are a 30 year
investment, and the pretty solid bet that the USA will make good on them,
I’ll also say that the Oil-market-driven inflation that we are currently
experiencing IS temporary (NOT a 30 year thing in other words), and
that furthermore, the longer it does last, the more destructive it will become
for consumers, stocks and the economy…which would, in itself, absolutely be
bullish for bonds…But
my bottom line comes back to the fact, one more time…and especially after a 70
point decline, RIGHT HERE, TREASURY BONDS, AND NOT THE STOCK MARKET, ARE THE
BEST PAPER INSTRUMENT BUY ON THE PLANET.
Or putting it another way, there ARE two basic paper investments
that people have invested in for centuries…Stocks…and Bonds. And right now, my
impression has been, and continues to be, that the masses are already bought up
to their limits of just about every hot stock idea (chips, AI, robotics, crypto, data centers,
etc.) that the brokerages have hyped them into…with all of them having done so
at their all-time highs…AND I think the probability is extremely high that the
next investment “phase” we’ll be seeing is a major liquidation out of those
positions as they “sour,” leading to a significant percentage of those funds
heading, as BUYERS, into the safety and dependability of the Bond Market that
so many NYC suits currently view as nothing but trash…the end result six months
from now being something like, Bonds having rallied 20-30 points while all
those hot headline grabbing companies will have done nothing but seriously
“disappoint,” like clockwork, the Wall Street trusting public.
And one more very important point. When the Fed “raises
rates,” they are NOT axiomatically raising Long Term Interest Rates. The only
rate they directly control is the Fed Funds Rate, or the OVERNIGHT rate that
banks can lend and borrow from each other, and while their actions can
influence other interest rates, they do NOT control them…The point is, SHORT
TERM INTEREST RATES CAN BE GOING HIGHER, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LONG TERM RATES
CAN BE GOING LOWER.
Enough chatter…Here are two ways to Buy Treasury Bonds…
If you don’t understand futures “spreads,” what follows here
will feel like Greek to you…
I view the spread shown below as a great way to get long the Bonds, with a very clearly defined risk point,
while also having a LOT of upside potential. This is a margined position, about
$2800 per spread, in which you BUY 1 December Bond against the SELL of 1
December Ten Year Note. Generally speaking, if I am right and Bonds ARE going
up, they should do so faster than the Notes, such that, a move up from here to
the extent that Bonds get "10 points over" the Notes would mean about
a $9000 gain per spread...
Here is the actual Dec 2026 Treasury Bond vs Ten Year Note spread…
Contact me if you want to know more…And again, you are
probably NOT going to find any real opinion out there to make you feel
“comfortable” in doing this. In my experience, this has ALWAYS been the case in
the Treasury Bond market…and always will be…more so than any market we trade.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Treasury Bonds, Ten Year Notes