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September 3, 2025
More Evidence of a Top?
DON’T JUST WATCH…
Ok…This trade has eaten me up forever but that does not
change the FACT that this market WILL turn down…with 50 years of history
suggesting it will then go the way of EVERY commodity bull market ever…and
that anywhere between 3 and 6 months from now have BLASTED the “smallest
herd in 75 years” story totally into oblivion. Don’t kid yourself. That IS
the way this stuff works. And the stats I keep citing, that when Feeders do
top, the average initial decline, since 1974, is about 19% in 8.5
weeks are NOT just fluffed up BS. Those number are real, and the truth is,
in futures, “the bigger they are, the harder they fall,” is also not
BS…which leads me to an expectation of something more like a 30% decline…or
a full $1.00 drop from here.
With predicting a $1.00 decline, or $50,000 per futures
contract, this trade does qualify as potentially being “one of the best
commodity trades ever,” which obviously also does not mean you can’t lose
money (and I, and some of you, have lost a lot) while waiting for the top
tick to occur. BUT…if you can get a short position successfully
established here, and then leave it alone for a few months, I absolutely
believe there is a BIG, BIG hit to be made here.
HERE’S HOW YOU DO IT…AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY, HOW DO YOU MANAGE THE RISK?
The first thing is to have some indication of a
potential downturn having begun…which, at these insanely high levels…and
per all the historical charts that follow below…is to:
#1 Get short following ANY lower close, and especially if you have a
small series of them.
#2 Get out and take a relatively small loss if the
market makes new highs.
#3 Wait for a new lower close and get short again using
the same plan to exit if new highs are made.
#4 If you get short and the market continues making
lower closes, FORGET YOU ARE SHORT FOR A FEW MONTHS.
Note the percentage size of the declines…and how long it took to do
so…And ALSO that in many cases, how often there are lengthy strings of
lower closes with very few upticks (higher closes).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
And you have seen the following info before
but it just bears repeating…
There are any number of ways to do this…With more or
less time, more or less out-of-the-money…or even futures. The main
thing is just to get SOMETHING on here…while it is still a prices close to
QUADRUPLE the were 3-4 years ago…And DO know that with the daily
limit being $9.25 cents, or $4625 per futures, this thing CAN get away from
these highs very quickly, the point being: If you think this makes sense,
and that the risk is worth the potential reward, DON’T just watch it…or hope
for some perfect moment to get in. CALL ME AND GET SOMETHING ON NOW.
Thanks…This IS about to happen. Maybe I’m still wrong
but I HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE…WHERE I HAVE LOOKED LIKE AN IDIOT…AND NOBODY “BELIEVES,”…AND
THEN TWO MONTHS LATER I’M REGARDED AS “SMART” AGAIN…AND HEARING A LOT OF “I
KNEW I SHOULD HAVE…” FROM EVERYBODY.
GET ON THIS.
Regards,
Old Hack Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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