August 7, 2024

We started fully reinstating our Short Corn and Soybean positions last night…

My Forty-four years of experience do not mean that I am always going to be right…Sometimes I am just dead, dead wrong, as I am forever reminding myself…

…But it undoubtedly does help that having seen, first hand, maybe a 1000  bull and/or bear markets does give you some idea of what to look for at various stages as they begin, trend…and then END….And in that vein, what I will tell you today, with zero doubt, is that BEAR MARKETS IN CORN AND SOYBEANS ALMOST INEVITABLY DO NOT END UNTIL THERE IS BLOOD ON THE TRACKS…where maybe the last 20-30% of the move IS just straight, straight down…relentlessly so and in BIG, HARD, DAILY SLASHES LOWER…And by that measure, I WILL SAY THAT WE ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM IN EITHER MARKET…Timewise? Maybe we’re almost there. Maybe we’ll make the big low in the next month or so…But pricewise? NOT close…I mean, really, we have yet to even see a mildly freaky 40 cent down day in Soybeans, much less 50 or 60 cents, nor have we seen anything more than maybe 5 consecutive lower closes…So, I’ll reiterate. We “should” see blood on the tracks before this bear market is over…and we have NOT. Consequently,  I STILL THINK SOYBEANS WILL MAKE A LOW TICK SOMEWHERE UNDER $9.00, AND WITH CORN, IT WILL BE JUST UNDER $3.00…and I DO  BELIEVE WE COULD GET THERE AS SOON AS EARLY SEPTEMBER.

I continue to recommend buying puts in Corn and Soybeans…

One last comment…I have YET to see a single one of all those ag analysts…who have been bullish for two years…finally give up and say something like, “They’ve broken the last support! They’re headed down to $_____!” And believe me, that IS one of the flags that will suggest we’re almost there…When, for example, Soybeans have maybe just hit $8.90 or the like, all those wrong-way-for-two-years analysts will suddenly be screaming, “They’re going straight to $8.00!”  And again, that ain’t what we're seeing…From all those guys, it’s STILL, “We’re at support,” or “When China starts buying,” etc…They are all STILL looking for “the bottom.” And believe me, when we DO get there, “bottom” won’t even be in their vocabulary…

Call me if you want do something with this…

And the Cattle, where Feeders had their 5^th consecutive lower close today…are, I believe, now into a FULL BLOWN PRICE COLLAPSE…that has a LONG, LONG way to go...And IT IS, BY NO MEANS, TOO LATE TO GET ON THEM.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans, Corn, Cattle