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August 5, 2025
Corn and Soy Continuing Their Collapse into NEW
LOWS AGAIN
And I think…ACCELERATING From Here
Point Blank: I said it back in January…that the World’s
Biggest Grain and Soybean importer is NOT going to kowtow to Herr Trump’s
policy threats and absurdly high tariffs…So here we are 7 months later and
the White House is still “waiting by the phone,” while China is making
agricultural import deals with everybody else on the planet…except the USA.
Meanwhile, without China as a buyer, Corn, Wheat and Soybean prices here
have all been in bear markets…and notably, of late, with massive crop
harvests ahead, are now beginning what I truly believe could be an
unrelenting NOSEDIVE down to prices that will be (and already are)
DEVASTATING for our nation’s farmers.
I am not just some sort of perennial bear, but with the May, 2022 invasion
of Ukraine, with crop prices then leaping through the roof, I began
predicting a severe 2-3 year bear market in Corn, Wheat and Soybeans…which
I do believe (3 years later) is now nearing its end…BUT…I still think the
last, and WORST stage is dead in front of us…with Corn and Soybeans
potentially trading under $3.00 & $9.00 respectively.
And no, prices won’t be there long before they bounce back up above those
big round numbers…But they also won’t be going anywhere significant on the
upside for quite some time either…regardless of when China DOES come in and
scoop them up at what might be the lowest prices in 10 years…thanks to
you-know-who…as crop market bottoms usually take, minimally, a year or so
before they start a new bullish phase…AND WHILE THAT YEAR OR SO PASSES, MY
GUESS IS FARMERS WILL BE SUFFERING BIGTIME…PERHAPS AS BADLY AS THEY DID
DURING THE MID-1980’S WHEN SMALL FARMERS WERE GOING UNDER LEFT AND RIGHT…I
have no doubt that Trump will write them all checks (same as he did when
tariffs killed ag prices in his first administration) but even so, $3.00
Corn and $9.00 Beans will still have all those hardworking farmers
operating in nothing more than survival mode.
WITH NEW LOWS IN
CORN AND WHEAT TODAY, AND SOYBEANS JUST TWO CENTS AWAY FROM THE SAME, I
CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BEING SHORT CORN AND SOYBEANS.
I AM RELATIVELY CERTAIN, THAT WITH EVERY NEW LOW PRICES
NOW MAKE, MORE AND MORE WORRIED FARMERS, WATCHING DOLLARS EVAPORATE IN
THEIR BINS, ARE BEING SCARED INTO SELLING…AND THEY ARE ALL DOING IT
TOGETHER, WHICH DOES CREATE SOMETHING OF AN AVALANCHE OF SELLING…AND DOES
TURN INTO A FALLING KNIFE MARKET THAT DOES, AS I KEEP SAYING, GO FURTHER
THAN ANYONE THINKS POSSIBLE.
I might be dead wrong, but I do think we ARE now
entering the biggest, fastest phase of the Corn and Soybean Bear
Markets…And having done this for a long while, I KNOW that this is NOT the
sort of trade most people are ever willing to take, but from a totally
objective trading standpoint, it IS almost the most obvious and EASIEST
trade that you ever get. Again, this doesn’t mean it will work but I WILL
TAKE THESE ODDS…Breaking into new lows out of lengthy
consolidation…during which time just about every analyst on the planet has
been talking the bull side? GET SHORT!
This IS just starting…Call if you want a piece of it…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans, Soybean Oil
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