July 31, 2024

Soybeans have been blasted for $1.00 since last week and Corn is following suit and making new lows today…

After watching tons of money disappear in recent weeks and months, my guess is that farmers are now entering the panic phase, and that Corn, the biggest crop they have  been sitting on, is beginning to POUR OUT OF THE SILOS…BY WHICH I MEAN, SELLING IN MASSIVE NUMBERS.

My sense is we are truly entering a massive Old Crop (harvested last fall) liquidation phase…which will directly impact September the most…And absolutely do think we are headed for the low $3.00 area…Doesn’t matter what one might think Corn’s true “value” should be…Right now it’s just about UNANIMOUS farmer fear of losing even more money…and seeing them all selling at the same time for the next 2-3 weeks.

I do think Corn will look something like I’ve drawn it…just straight down…which means, if I am right (and I certainly might not be), that there is a LOT of leverage in Sept puts right now.

Here are some ideas and numbers…and I obviously mean this should be done tonight, or tomorrow…not next week or something…as I think this panic is in gear…and heavy cash selling will be coming every day now I’d guess…especially going into and over the weekend.

Do be aware that the last part of any move usually has NOTHING to do with value, logic or supposed fundamentals...In bear markets specifically…which is what Corn has been in for two years, the final “washout” is all about fear and money screaming towards the sidelines...and HOW FAR...OR LOW...IT GOES IS GENERALLY WAY BELOW WHAT ANYBODY THINKS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...And that being said, I maintain it IS possible that Corn's actual low tick will have a "2" in front of it.

This is  December 2024 Corn…the first official New Crop Corn contract…

Call if you’re interested in doing something with this.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn