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July 28, 2025
FOR EVERY
ONE OF THE PAST 10 YEARS, SEPTEMBER CORN HAS MADE ITS LOW FOR THE GROWING SEASON BETWEEN
JULY 22 AND SEPTEMBER 14, WITH THE LOW IN 9 OUT OF THOSE 10 YEARS HAVING
BEEN IN AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER. MANY TIMES, THAT LAST DOWNSWING IS QUITE SHARP…AND I
ASSURE YOU, A TOTAL SURPRISE TO ANALYSTS, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, FARMERS.
 
 
 
 
 
And
DO note that in 8 of those 10 contracts the low was
made during the last week or two before September ceased trading…In other
words, THE BEAR MARKET IN CORN IS NOT OVER…There could still be a LOT of downside during the next 6 weeks…right up until the day September goes off the board.
LITERALLY.
In recent weeks, trade agreements have been made with
major trading partners like Japan and the EU, while China, Brazil and
Argentina are still out there on the wings, basically saying, “So what?” to
Trump, as those three countries ramp up their agricultural trade between
themselves …Meanwhile, our exports are suffering…and with it the American
farmer as prices for Corn, Wheat and Soybeans have continued to sink
and are now beginning what I believe could turn into a nosedive as we head
into the fall harvests.
I remain convinced
that there is a ton of FORCED CORN AND SOYBEAN SELLING (of both old crop
and new crop) coming from farmers over the next one to two months against a
backdrop of both weak exports and end user buying…And that
by the time China DOES come to the table, there is no telling how low
prices may have fallen…TO CHINA’S BENEFIT and the DETRIMENT OF THE AMERICAN
FARMER…As I’ve been saying for months, Xi is NOT going to bow down to
Trump, and the end result might be China being able to scoop up our crops
at the lowest prices in the past 10 years.
I CONTINUE TO
RECOMMEND BEING SHORT BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS HERE…
The last 10 years (and
many more really) do NOT mean Corn will do the same thing this year…But as
I have continued to say, SOONER OR LATER FARMERS DO HAVE TO START
UNLOADING, BOTH DUE TO DOLLARS ALREADY LOST…AND TO MAKE ROOM FOR THE RECORD
CROP THAT’S OUT THERE IN THE FIELDS RIGHT NOW. TO ME, IT DOES NOT GET ANY
MORE OBVIOUS THAN THIS…Again, however, this does not mean I will be right,
and if I’m not it most likely means, losing money, but as I’ve been saying,
I WILL NOT BE OUT OF THIS TRADE. I THINK THIS IS A FANTASTIC RISK VS REWARD
SETUP.
It DOES appear to be
moving…so if you think this makes sense, I urge you to go ahead and get
something on…NOW.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans
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