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July 1, 2025
NEW LOWS AGAIN IN CORN…
THE CRASH APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING.
$3.25 LOOKS LIKE A VERY REAL TARGET.
I
CANNOT REPEAT THIS OFTEN ENOUGH: THE FUTURES MARKETS ALWAYS GO FURTHER IN ONE DIRECTION
THAN ANYONE EVER THINKS POSSIBLE.
And while I am no commodity trading genius, I do have
decent enough intelligence and instincts to have survived in this insanity
for 45 years…But even so, that still does not prevent me, a supposed
“expert” with tremendously more experience than 99% of traders, from
sometimes being totally on the wrong side of markets that DO just keep
going, and going and going…with my point being that my opening statement
about how far markets DO go IS dead on accurate. And more specifically, for
me, here is an unmitigated FACT: Market bottoms in row crops are
NEVER made until just about every grower in the country is absolutely
freaking out about how UNBELIEVABLY LOW prices have become…which is NOT
where we are right now.
For sure, farmers are not happy with how far prices have
fallen, and with new recent lows the sentiment pendulum is swinging more
towards bearish (as opposed to the months-on-end analyst’s inspired belief
that prices had definitely bottomed)…but we have by no means gotten
anywhere even close to the “despair” that has been present at EVERY crop
price LOW I have ever seen. Right now? With new contract lows being
made in Corn, and Soybeans not far from the same, my view is that we’re
right on the cusp of that final stage in these 3 year Bear Markets where
farmers are becoming extremely anxious about the Dollars
being lost on the billions of bushels they have unsold from last fall…And
as their DAILY cumulative selling now pushes prices lower, new lows in
price (like TODAY) quite naturally induces even more selling. And when you
add to the equation that buyers are pretty much covered out through
summer’s end…and sitting on their hands? Then yeah…PRICES CAN AND
OFTEN DO GO STRAIGHT DOWN…again, BEYOND WHAT ANYONE THINKS POSSIBLE.
Here are a couple of recent examples of what a Corn
market bottom DOES look like…how a Bear Market in Corn (and Soybeans) DOES
typically end…
2014
2020
And
here’s what we have today…Basically
the same set up in SO many ways, and not just on the chart…which does NOT
mean it will do the same…BUT I WILL TAKE THIS BET.
I am doing both Futures
and Put Options here…Sell the futures and give it a 10 cent stop ($500), or
Buy either/both of these Puts.
Contact me if you want to do this…
And Cattle, btw, were
semi-sharply lower today…Down 3.12 cents in August Live Cattle ($1248 per
futures) and down 4.82 cents in August Feeders ($2410 per futures). I
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY RECOMMEND BUYING PUTS BEFORE THEY REALLY GET AWAY FROM
HERE.
Thanks,
Old Hand Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN
LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Corn, Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle
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