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and want to act on them, I would obviously appreciate
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Thanks…Bill Rhyne
June 10, 2026
Ok. I have returned from 3 weeks of roaming in Norway,
Finland, Sweden and Denmark (where I lived 50 years ago). During the trip, I
purposely did not see or know anything about the markets, as experience has
taught me that when I truly get away from the screen, the markets, and my own
opinions…and then come back to this insanity of predicting the future---with my
mind kind of in blank slate mode---my perceptions and objectivity tend to be
dramatically improved. This certainly does not mean that everything that
follows here will be correct, but as my fiercest critic, this IS when I have
the greatest confidence in the trades I recommend…and as always, I DO trade my
ideas with my own money.
A monster surprise…
All 4 row crops got blasted while I was away…
Fortunately
for me, I left town with very little on in the markets as the last thing I want
to be doing on vacation is wondering whether or not I am losing my ass, so the
sting was nowhere near what it would have been (for me) had I stayed here…And I
can only consider it blind luck that I wasn’t here while the selloffs were
happening as I almost certainly would have been buying more Corn, Cotton, Wheat
and Soybeans as they started falling…thereby probably losing the profits I was
generating in Short Silver and Short Cattle (which I am never out of)…and then
some.
At any rate, I definitely did not see the downturn in
crops coming…and just as definitely won’t sit here today and present
some useless after-the-fact explanation as to why it happened, the reason being
that one of my firm, forever stated, convictions is that the majority of price
swings are NOT for any specific reason, but are simply based on sloshing money
(professionals and the public) getting IN (chasing)…and then getting OUT
(fleeing)…of ideas. The time frames can be daily, weekly, monthly or even yearly,
but it’s all about traders and investors acting on perceptions created by the
media…So yeah. I’ve seen the press about why (supposedly) the crops got
hit…But, after the fact? I view all that as irrelevant.
I still view the row crops as
THE BEST ASSET CLASS BUY ON THE BOARD
and continue to recommend Buying Calls
in Corn, Cotton, Soybeans & Wheat
Here are the call options I
would buy in each market…right here, right now.
My recommendation is to
buy all four calls as one unit…for about $5230…and to begin with, forget you
own them for the next six weeks.
If any of the four work (and they mostly likely will move somewhat in unison)
and the other three expire worthless, you still stand a good chance of not
losing anything. Obviously, if all four don’t go, you could lose everything you
have invested…As for the upside, you can do the math yourself as to what
happens if 2, 3 or all 4 get it going.
I remain short Cattle
and am even more convinced that
THE TOP HAS BEEN MADE
& EXPECT THEM TO FALL 25-35% IN THE MONTHS AHEAD
Lots of talk swirling around about SCREWWORM FLIES with
everybody trying to figure out what it means for prices…I’m gonna
say that none of that matters with the bottom line being that this is just
another bull market that has ended, that screwworms are just the “story du
jour,” and that regardless
of how “low” the herd numbers are, or any other factors you want to cite,
FEEDER CATTLE AND LIVE CATTLE ARE HEADED LOWER AND WILL BE IN A SEVERE BEAR
MARKET FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-18 MONTHS.
If you want to argue that “the cows just aren’t there, so
how can Cattle possibly be in a bear market?”, as just ONE example, I’d suggest
taking a look a what has recently happened in Gold,
Silver and Bitcoin (charts following), all of which supposedly had/have
UNDENIABLY bullish “fundamentals,” yet all three have absolutely cratered this
year, in spite of WAR in the Middle East AND inflation like we haven’t seen in
years.
I mean it…I don’t give a hoot what the bullish story is…I
have seen this script 100’s of times, when EVERYTHING about a market was
bullish…and 6 months later had gone totally in the tank…And I could give you
examples in, literally, every market that we trade…
THE LONG TERM PICTURE…When you get
down to it, both Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle have just been sitting here for
a while…in spite of all the non-stop bullish rhetoric…going nowhere. So the odds are high that SOMETHING is coming, one way or
the other…and I seriously doubt the consumer, or the restaurants, or anybody
can stand beef prices going ANY higher than they already are…So DOWN…and not
quietly so…is my guess.
Here are put options I would
buy…right here, right NOW.
I Still am Short Gold and Silver
BUT
think they are very close to finishing their Sell Off
I
have been banging away on being short the precious metals, but other than
myself, have had no one willing to even consider the trade. And as noted, while
I was travelling, Short Silver (and Cattle) did more than offset my losses in the crop markets crap out…That being said, I suspect the
current metals decline is just about over and I expect to be out, and totally
on the sidelines, of both Gold & Silver, within the next day or two…I have zero interest in going
long.
One more time though…What has happened in the precious
metals IS a perfect example of my absolute belief that none of these values are
real…I mean, really, even after the fact, I am 100% certain that there is no
one on the planet that can go back through all of the upswings and downswings,
and reversals, and pauses in Gold or Silver during the past six months and
convince me that all of those MAJOR percentage changes in “value” were
attributable to anything close to some mysterious economic formula that mathematically
defines, at any given moment, what the price of Gold should be. One more time…IT
IS MASSIVELY A FUNCTION OF MONEY JUMPING IN AND OUT OF MARKETS (daily, weekly,
or monthly) BASED ON WHAT THE BROKERAGE HOUSES AND INVESTMENT MEDIA SHILLS ARE,
OR HAVE BEEN, FEEDING THE PUBLIC…And 6 months ago, 99.9% of those people were
non-stop talking about $250,000 Bitcoin, $10,000 Gold, and $200 Silver…with
their “logic” and fervor convincing just about every investor out there to dive
in with them…and pretty much lose their shirts.
And I WILL be taking the money here…NOT watch it all
disappear like I did with our long Cotton position.
And Silver is where I think there still some real bloodletting yet to be done,
the reason being, I consider Silver to be like the tail of a whip. Generally it really follows Gold (I don’t even consider
Silver as “precious” really) but it has a tendency to overshoot big time at the
end of moves and go FURTHER than Gold. With that in mind, I kind of expect Gold
to stop first...then see Silver get really clobbered. Not set in stone though. I am basically in “take the
money” mode now and KNOW not to think I can EVER call this shit perfectly.
I will address the Stock Market and Treasury Bonds (which I
think are EXTREMELY interesting right now) in my next newsletter.
Contact me if you want to talk about any of this…
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, Wheat, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle,
Gold, Silver