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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of
loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Only risk capital should be
used when investing in the markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether
such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.
The opinions and viewpoints discussed herein are entirely my own.
No representation is being made that a
specific strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Fundamental
factors, seasonal and weather trends, and current events may have already
been factored into the markets. Past performance is not necessarily
indicative of future results. The data contained herein is believed
to be drawn from reliable sources; however, individuals acting on this
information alone are responsible for their own actions. This material is, or is in the nature of, a
solicitation.
This newsletter is my sales tool. If you like my ideas
and want to act on them, I would obviously appreciate
having some of your trading done here with me.
For more info or consultation…
Landline 770-425-7241
Cell 770-366-3070
Also…If you would like to
receive my free research at the same time it is published, contact me and I
will add your name to my email list.
Thanks…Bill Rhyne
April 19, 2026
The Stock and Futures GAME…
& THE Big Shorts
To say that prices of stocks and commodities sometimes become
distorted, extreme and somewhat out touch with reality would be an
understatement, as, in fact they are frequently/routinely doing just that…As ONE
example, take a look at Silver of late. Between Dec 1 and Jan 31, it
rallied about 144%...then reversed, literally overnight, and lost 46% of
its “value” in 7 trading days…which was followed by a 49% increase in 16
trading days…and then dropped 37% in 17 trading days! Now, if you want to
believe that those changes in price truly reflect some specific fundamental
events taking place, go right ahead, but I say: NOT A CHANCE.
I mean, really, does the value of your house do that? Or
farmland? Or your car? Or grocery prices? Or anything REAL that you know
of? I don’t care what the market is…If it’s traded on an exchange, it
IS just part of the world’s biggest MOB PSYCHOLOGY video game and its
fluctuations in price ARE almost totally driven by the financial media
HEADLINES influencing investors or speculators to chase whatever is “hot”
and on the move…and then eventually FLEE those ideas as losers…both in the
markets AND in the real world…And make no mistake, the time frame that’s involved
can be in days, months or even years, in which EVERYBODY ends up totally on
one side of a market…And in my opinion, THAT WAS/IS WHAT YOU HAVE IN PRECIOUS METALS TODAY,
WITH, I BELIEVE, GOLD AND SILVER HAVING MADE THEIR HIGHS FOR YEARS TO COME
BACK IN JANUARY…AND IN CATTLE RIGHT NOW…WHERE EVERYBODY IN THE
INDUSTRY HAS LOADED UP ON THE MOST EXPENSIVE ANIMALS IN HISTORY, AND I
THINK ARE ABOUT TO GET ABSOLUTELY TOASTED FINANCIALLY AS PRICES MAKE WHAT I
WOULD CLASSIFY AS NOTHING LESS THAN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 30% COLLAPSE
(AT LEAST) TO THE DOWNSIDE.
Why? Because that is what cattle do…
Going back 50 years, the Cattle markets have ROUTINELY been
swinging SHARPLY back and forth between MAJOR bullish and bearish phases…I suspect
that this routine 1-2 year volatility is a function of this market being
for a live animal that takes 2-3 years to raise, and when it has
reached slaughter weight, CANNOT BE STORED AWAY, & MOST IMPORTANTLY,
HAS TO BE SOLD, NO MATTER WHAT THE PRICE…the seasonality of those
sales often resulting in EVERYBODY having to sell at the same time…But why
really doesn’t matter here. The fact is, as can be seen on the charts
following, that this IS what they have done for a half century…GOING KIND OF STRAIGHT UP,
AND THEN STRAIGHT DOWN…NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT “BULLISH STORY” MIGHT BE…and
I seriously doubt this is going to change.
I would also add that the two cattle futures
contracts usually move even bigger than the cash as the presence of
speculative money absolutely has, let’s say, a definitively “expansive”
effect on how far those markets go.
So…here in the present?
The monthly Cattle on Feed report just came
out following Friday’s close…once again confirming that “the cattle just
aren’t there,” and purportedly was considered to be bullish, with some
calls even for Feeders to be limit up on Monday…and having lived thought
1000’s of agricultural and economic reports, I long ago learned that,
whatever the numbers might be, I generally have no idea as to what the
market’s actual next day reaction might be…as well as remembering that I
have seen 1000’s of “unexpected” responses to those reports…sometimes the
same day, sometimes later…The point is, I KNOW all the “bullish”
statistic…but I also KNOW that pretty much every bull market in futures
market history did NOT end with some obviously bearish news that screamed
“Sell now!” It’s trite, but TRUE. The press is always, always, always
bullish when you’re at the top.
Yeah, I’ve been wrong here…But I remain
bearish…and still see this as one of the biggest futures shorts EVER. Right
here. Right now. Here are a few put options I like here…
This is where the biggest leverage seems to
be…
And yes, those are big numbers, but they are not an
exaggeration…Under the current circumstances (or really just in normal
times), this IS how Cattle can, and DO, move.
There are many ways to go about doing this…Call me if you want
to know more.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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