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March 22, 2026
There is no firm ground anywhere…
And that is NOT good for
businesses, economies, consumers & international
trade.
We, and the rest of the world, are now being subjected to
the negative consequences
of a WAR that is totally based on Trump’s lie that Iran was
“going to attack us, within a week. 100%.” And he’s now calling our allies
cowards? And deploying human LIVES that are not headed for Iran just to sit on
their hands? This is NOT leadership and I’m pretty sure that it’s not what any
rational, objective American consumer really wants to be hearing.
If you want to believe the LIE that a country without even
one missile that could reach the USA was coming to get us, go ahead.…But that
does not change the fact that this IS the view of virtually the entire planet
(and a least a few of his advisors who resigned for that reason)…nor does it
change the reality of having the majority of America’s longest standing Allies
no longer TRUSTING the USA or supporting this blunder that has already wasted
billions of dollars and American lives, with, I am afraid, undoubtedly much
more of both to come. I
seriously doubt that Iran is about to back down (the USA certainly wouldn’t if
someone bombed the White House and NYC), and as for Trump falsely “declaring
victory” or issuing some sort of “mission accomplished” statement, I don’t
think that will suddenly make everything “good” again and save Stocks, the
economy and the American consumer.
I assure you that my opinions in the markets are in no way
colored by my distaste for the current administration. As a trader, all I ever
want to do is figure out what I think is going to happen, and then to make trades and recommendations that will be profitable
if I am right. As I am forever stating, I WILL be wrong & I WILL
be right…and when
I am wrong, it will assuredly mean losing money.
There is a LOT happening
right now. Here are some brief updates to where I think we are in various
markets I am positioned in.
Precious Metals Collapse
LAST
WEEK’S BIGGEST SURPRISE…Gold’s $500 drop in two trading days.
And it happened so fast that my guess is very few of the gazillion Gold owners
who climbed all over Wall Street’s hype and loaded up on both Gold and Silver
2-3 months ago were even aware the collapse has happened…which I believe means
they have not even had time to react yet…and react they will (both small and
large traders)…and NOT as buyers. Bottom line is that it IS possible that the next few days
(a la the spring 1983 20% 5 day Gold crash I
referenced on X on Friday) COULD produce a further sell off of a magnitude that
is bigger than what we saw last week. I DON’T know what’s coming but I
PERSONALLY REMAIN SHORT GOLD…and Silver.
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BEING
SHORT THE STOCK INDICES
Aside from my introductory comments not being at all
“friendly” for Stocks, I come back to my ongoing (for months) observations that
in my 46 years doing this, I have never seen as much rampant, GIDDY,
speculation by both individual and professional investors during the past 6
months as I perceive to be the case…that, as I have repeatedly stated,
EVERYBODY IS LONG EVERYTHING…especially hopped up, and loaded to their limit,
on HOT MEDIA IDEAS including tech (AI, Chips, Robotics, etc.), the “Mag 7,”
Precious Metals, and of course Crypto…This, I believe, has taken these
markets to the point where, “there is nobody left to buy,” meaning NO BUYING
LEFT TO PUSH ANY OF IT HIGHER…which time and time again in this mob psychology
investing GAME leads to the inevitability of ALL THOSE BUYERS BECOMING
SELLERS…And that IS where I think we are now in Stocks.
Do be aware that just because tech companies are making a
tons of money, and predicting even bigger profits, does NOT mean their stocks can’t go
down…a LOT. This shit just ain’t that simple. It IS a
game, and just as one example, I’ll go back to what has happened to one of the
single biggest tech names there is…MICROSOFT.
Just 4 months ago, basically the entire brokerage house
industry was recommending not just owning, but continuing to buy, Microsoft.
You think this is an exception? Take a look what has
happened since October to the rest of the Brokerage House Hyped “Mag 7” that
“every investor should have in their portfolio,” and KNOW that virtually none
of those NYC geniuses has yet to say, “Get out!”
Amazon – Down 20%
Apple – Down 14%
Google – Down 14%
Meta – Down 28%
Nvidia – Down 18%
Tesla – Down 26%
In fact, while the recent new six month
lows have begun to create some concern, most of those perpetually wrong way
guys are now talking in terms of the decline being, “just a pullback,” and as
seen in these few representative headlines during the past two days, presenting
you with a “buying opportunity.” My opinion: NOT NOT NOT
This is how I see it…I
CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BEING SHORT THE STOCK INDICES.
And in the interest of brevity…I will end with this…
I REMAIN LONG CORN, COTTON,
SOYBEANS AND WHEAT…and will update charts on those markets in the next few
days.
CATTLE
THE LAST BULL STANDING…
AND ABOUT TO FOLLOW GOLD & STOCKS
I might be dead wrong, but
with energy prices surging, and stocks falling, and feed costs rising, and the
American consumer struggling to keep up with costs…AND with what I would
perceive as a “not bullish” Cattle on Feed Report having come out after Friday’s
close…I think the
Cattle contracts could see a sharply lower open tomorrow…and not look back from
there. Again, I DON’T know…but at some point, with all of these
other HOT bull markets going in the tank, the same thing IS coming in both
Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle…
I know that no one in the Cattle industry wants to hear
this, but the historical nature of Feeders, going back 50 years, IS to
drop about 20% in less than a few months…and all things considered, I think
this time will be worse than that…I don’t care WHAT the low numbers
are. My view is that
EVERYBODY IN THE CATTLE BUSINESS IS LONG…WITH EVERYBODY WHO OWNS
FEEDERS UP HERE ALREADY UNDERWATER…WITH MANY OF THEM UNABLE TO BUY ANYMORE…AND
THE MAJORITY OF THEM ABLE TO DO NOTHING MORE NOW THAN JUST, “HOPE PRICES WILL
GO BACK UP.”
I think it’s about to get VERY nasty on the downside…and
“straight down” IS the way I would describe what I am expecting. Again, I might
be dead wrong but that is what I am positioned for…I don’t think trades ever
get any bigger than this.
Showing you the long term chart
again…
I AM SHORT
BOTH CONTRACTS
Contact me if anything here interests you.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account
and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned
within: All of them