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March 13,
2026
Sneaking Down…
LOWEST CLOSE TODAY IN FEEDER CATTLE
IN 2026…
And I think…
Coming hard out of the gate lower
next week
It is important to never forget that
major “surprise” events can dramatically affect the fundamental equations that
determine the price of any stock or commodity. TRUMP’S WAR qualifies as such an
event…and I believe is IMMEDIATELY about to SEVERELY impact the Feeder Cattle
market.
Because…
1. SHARPLY higher
energy costs…as in Unleaded Gas being up almost $1.00 since Trump
attacked…are going to come straight out of consumer’s pockets…which undeniably
WILL affect the demand for already sky high beef costs. BEARISH FOR CATTLE
PRICES
2. Approximately 62% of
American households own stocks…and you can bet that, thanks to Wall
Street hype, a large majority of them own those “gotta have,” supposedly
bulletproof companies known as the “Mag
7” (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla)…all of which,
cumulatively are already down an average of almost 20% from their highs made
last Fall…and that does NOT make the very real “affordability”
situation any better. Especially if Stocks get worse…which IS what I am
expecting. BEARISH FOR CATTLE PRICES
3. Thanks to the war
and the Straits of Hormuz closure, together with screaming higher energy and
fertilizer prices , FEED COSTS are also going through the roof, with massive
leaps in Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans having occurred...with it being
highly probable (my opinion) that, no matter what midnight tweets Herr Trump
sends out, all of those items will keep going higher. This is specifically
BEARISH FOR FEEDER CATTLE PRICES, as with a hefty percentage of the entire
Feeder Cattle industry already losing money on animals that they bought during
the last 3-4 months, I
FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT THE VACUUM OF BUYERS THAT I HAVE BEEN PREDICTING IS NOW DEAD IN FRONT OF US…In
other words, if you are already losing big bucks, and still have 2-3 months
left on feeding those animals, the last thing you’re going to do, with the
consumer crippled, and your costs going straight up, is go out and buy some
more. PERIOD. Maybe I’m dead wrong, but that’s REAL. That’s normal human
behavior when it comes to LOSING MONEY.
Here are the charts and
recommendations…
During the past year I have called this, “one
of the biggest trades I’ve ever seen.” And been dead, dead wrong…FOREVER…And
none of you came anywhere close to losing as much as I did…BUT,
that has nothing to do with now. I STILL VIEW THIS AS A ONCE A DECADE situation and fully
expect to see this market go down, AT LEAST A SOLID $1.00…and to do it in
fairly non-stop fashion. If I’m wrong, it loses money. If I’m
right, I think it can make a ton.
I am currently positioned in the April contract as I think
this recent, fairly quiet “slide” IS the beginning of the Bear Market…And that the
NEXT thing we’re about to see is a big, big acceleration. Right here. Right
now.
Here’s hoping you’ll get it on it…
I like both of these puts…And others really…even further out
of the money…If this is thing is going, it ought to go big.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle