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March 12, 2026
On Monday, March 9, Donald Trump made the following
statement regarding Iran: “Within a week, they
were going to attack us, 100%.”
To put it mildly, I find that statement IMPOSSIBLE to
believe…Nevertheless, the fact is, Trump singlehandedly started this absolutely
unnecessary WAR…and most importantly, in my opinion, is now beginning to
essentially lose control of the situation. I don’t know how bad this whole mess
will get (and I suspect that nobody in the White House does either), but I
seriously doubt that Iran is about to back down…at all…which leads me to
conclude that the negative effects of the WAR will be continuing…with the American
public, and the economy, and the stock market bearing the brunt of the damages…And
that’s just here in the United States.
Firstly, there will be no
respite in energy prices…and my opinion is that it’s likely going to get worse.
And if you think this conflict is already bad news, can you
imagine what the national mood would be like if American troops were actually
fighting…and dying…in Iran? I say that, because, short of Trump putting US
troops, tanks, artillery, etc. on the ground (along minimally 100 miles of
Iran’s coast), I doubt that he will succeed in forcing Iran to reopen the
Straits of Hormuz anytime soon.
And I don’t care how many battleships the Navy has out
there, or even how much missile power they use, I just don’t think it is
possible to provide enough assurance to ANY shipping company that their tankers
will be safe…whether from mines (which I’d gauge as impossible to prevent) or
from actual attack…EVEN if you tell them, “Oh, we’ll buy your insurance!” I
mean, really, if you were a shipping CEO, would you have ANY inclination to
risk losing even one of your $150,000,000 tankers? Which you’d
then be waiting maybe 3 years to replace? My point is, short of an all-out military
assault/INVASION on Iranian soil, my guess is the Straits will be closed as
long as Iran wants it that way…meaning energy prices may get even worse…therein
SLAMMING American consumers…and the economy…and everybody’s stock accounts.
Of course, Trump can, or will, at some point do his TACO routine and
predictively declare himself victorious…But even then, I’m not so sure that if
Iran would then play along and reopen the Straits…nor might it be that he
concedes soon enough to prevent stocks sharply dropping 15-20% from here…which
IS the course I think we’re on.
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND
SHORTING THE STOCK INDICES
With all of these indices on
their lows, you HAVE to surmise that the last 5-6 months’ worth of buyers ARE
losing money...and in a sense, now HOPING (the worse strategy there is in
investing) for a turn back up. I think the public…ONCE AGAIN…has been
influenced into buying Wall Street’s hype…and ONCE AGAIN are about to get
shafted.
If you agree, call me for
ideas, both in options and futures, as to how to get short any one of the three
indices…
EVERYBODY IS STILL LONG
EVERYTHING…and about to lose on all
fronts.
Revisiting my conviction that
everybody has already bought everything…up to their gills? And that sooner or
later they’re all going to get creamed? Because this whole investing thing IS
just a giant game that really is about people betting on PIECES OF PAPER…of
investors getting IN…and then getting OUT of stuff based on what a bunch of
Wall Street and Internet shills influence them into believing?
Whether you accept my
perspective or not as to how mob psychology is THE primary force that moves
prices up and down, again, in this GAME, I’m pretty sure that you will admit that last fall the
Media was 150% all over the idea of how much almost easy money there was to be
made in (1)Tech Stocks (Chips, AI, Robotics, etc.), and (2) in Crypto…and (3)
in Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum). And I do mean ALL OVER all three
of those asset classes…with BULLISH headlines everywhere.
So OK…They’ve already busted Bitcoin (that nobody
I know even uses) for 50%...and
if you want to say, “Oh, that’s just the way it trades,” go right ahead. But
what I remember last October, with Bitcoin at $125,000, is every nouveau crypto
expert on the planet talking about $250,000 within a few months, and $1,000,000
by next year…like those numbers were almost a given…And two months later it was
at $60,000? And still, I think, not done on the downside.
And Stocks? Already down and
looking, I believe, like they are just beginning to crater? And oh yeah, remember
the “Mag 7?” Those 7 big names stocks that all the New York geniuses said, “You
have to have all of these in your portfolio?” NOT A SINGLE ONE OF THOSE “GOTTA
HAVE” COMPANIES IS ANYWHERE NEAR ITS HIGHS…And if you average out the
declines ALL 7 have seen since last fall, it’s DOWN about 20%. Again…Those
stocks were/are Wall Streets biggest and best
darlings…and they’re losing…and I think, just getting started on doing so.
And then…What about Precious
Metals? Which, at their peak, especially in Silver, had
become one of the most over hyped and ultra unanimously recommended markets I
have seen during my 46 years around the markets? All I’ll do here is ask the
following question…
If full blown war in the Middle East, and rocketing Oil
Prices (inflationary), and a Sharply Falling Stock Market haven’t rallied
Gold…WHAT WILL? And as an
old hand told me decades ago, “It it ain’t going up, especially when it ought to, then it’s
going DOWN.”
I regard Gold as just another
market on the board, that like all the markets is
constantly going up...and down. Right now, when it "should" have
exploded on the upside, it has done absolutely nothing...which I take as an
indication that "there's nobody left to buy it," that yeah, "Everybody
that would/could be long, already is." And same as Crypto, and Stocks, I
think "everybody" is about to find themselves losing...and in a big
way. VERY FAST 20% “crapouts” are not at all
uncommon in Gold…and I do think that’s what we’re about to see.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Stock Indices, Gold