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Research and recommendations by Bill Rhyne
For more info or consultation…
Landline 770-425-7241
Cell 770-366-3070
February 24, 2026
This is a brief update on all of the formal opinions and
positions that I have been recommending…
BE SHORT THE STOCK INDICES
Pretty much EVERYBODY ON WALL STREET (who ARE the basis
for what 99% of the investing public believes) IS HOPPED UP AND BULLISH ON
JUST ABOUT EVERY TECHNO THEME YOU CAN IMAGINE (AI, Chips, Crypto, Robotics,
etc.), and my firm belief is that the whole investment world (professionals
and individuals alike) has therefore already bought ALL of those STORIES up
to their limits…that Investors everywhere have had multiple opportunities
to jump on the this super hyped up bandwagon during the past 3-6 months…
BUT…Right now? As all of those NAME stocks that are
almost unanimously held by the masses have “unexpectedly” begun to weaken?
With some of them having already decline by double
digit percentages?
Simply stated, IN THIS MOB PSYCHOLOGY INVESTMENT GAME, ALL OF THOSE CROWD FAVORITES
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE ULTIMATELY BEARISH EQUATION OF HAVING MORE SELLERS
THAN BUYERS…regardless of how much money those companies are making…with
the end result becoming, same as it has been forever, a BEAR MARKET IN
WHICH THE PUBLIC GETS IT HANDED TO THEM.
BUY CORN, COTTON, SOYBEANS & WHEAT
A major part of my
perspective for the year is that the Major Row Crops (Corn, Cotton,
Soybeans, Wheat) represent an asset class that is THE blind buy in the
markets. As such, I have recommended buying them as one “unit,” with each
unit being made up of one call in each market.
I can tell you that I am not at all concerned about the
purportedly bearish fundamental “stories” specific to each of these
markets. Between now and their next major high, which might be something
like a 18-24 months from now, as they all move
individually higher (sometimes leading, sometimes lagging) there will be
all sorts of “logical” reasons from Ag Analysts as to why “they just can’t
go any higher from here.” But I firmly believe that IS what they will be
doing…simply stating, as just one premise, and using just one of the four
as an example, IN NO WAY DOES 65 CENT COTTON EVEN BEGIN TO EQUATE TO 50,00O
on the Dow, or $5000 in Gold, or $100 in Silver, or $120,000 in Bitcoin, or
$3.80 in Feeders, etc. Not even close. THE ROW CROPS ARE A MONSTER BUY…WITH,
I THINK, A TON OF LEVERAGE TO DO IT WITH.
BUY COTTON
I cannot emphasize enough how potentially explosive I believe the Cotton
market to be right now…This next chart says it all…
Cotton has been trading sideways for the past 18 months,
just above 15 year lows…during which time, SPECULATIVE FUNDS HAVE BUILT A
TRULY MASSIVE RECORD LARGE SHORT POSITION…AND PER WHERE PRICES HAVE BEEN
TRADING FOR THE PAST YEAR MEAN THOSE SHORTS MUST HAVE AN AVERAGE SHORT
PRICE SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 64-65 CENT LEVEL...THEREFORE, ANY UPWARD MOVE
ABOVE 64-65 CENTS IS NOT LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE NEW SHORTS…BUT
RATHER…SHOULD BEGIN TO TRIGGER EQUALLY MASSIVE BUYING TO EXIT THESE
HUMONGOUS SHORT POSITIONS.
On the bottom chart, Do note how BIG their position is relative to the entire
history of Cotton trading…and how those shorts have been established while
the market was going nowhere.
BUY CORN
BUY SOYBEANS
BUY WHEAT
Buying all four will cost
about $5500. If all four go sideways or down, you could lose 100% of what
you have on the table. As for the upside, do the math for yourself if I
have it right about just one of them…or all of them.
BUY TREASURY BONDS
With my opinion that all of the HOT markets (Stocks,
Metals, Crypto, Cattle) are DONE on the upside, as they decline and
gazillions of bucks come out of them, those funds will be going somewhere
other than just cash. US Treasuries are STILL the safest piece of long
term paper on the planet, and I fully expect to see a LOT of that
money going into the Bond market…and at a minimum, look for at least a
15-20 point rally from current levels.
Short the Cattle Complex
Going back 50 years, when the Cattle market goes from a
bull market to a bear market, the initial average decline in Feeders is
about 19% in 8 ½ weeks. I look for this to be no different. I continue to
view the action since last October’s highs as a top forming process…and see ANY further weakness
from current levels as dramatically upping the odds that both Live Cattle
and Feeder Cattle are going seriously in the tank.
Gold and Silver? Too expensive and volatile to even
consider trading…If you own them, whether on paper (what most people have)
or the real thing, I’d say take the money…and forget those markets for a
few years.
Crypto? Lots of believers will tell you, “This is just
the way it trades.” But what I see is a “currency” that nobody really uses,
and that 99.9% of buyers own for only one reason…because they think it’s
going up. I say that any “currency” that can lose 50% of it “value” in a
matter of months is useless, both as a store of value or as an instrument
that you could actually USE as tender in a LEGAL business…To me, it’s the
cyber “cabbage patch doll” of the 80’s or the “beanie babies”…whenever it
was when they were HOT. And my guess is that it just dribbles away for
years…
That’s enough (too much) for one newsletter. Thanks if you waded through all of it.
Call me anytime…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Stock Indices, Treasury Bonds, Cotton, Corn, Soybeans,
Wheat, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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