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April 17, 2025
During my 45 years around the markets, I have traded the
interest rate sector far more than any other…And without any doubt,
throughout those decades, many of my very best, and biggest, market calls
have been in Treasury Bonds and Eurodollars. This is not to say that I am
always right…I can be just as dead wrong in rates as anything else…but I
can comfortably say that I have often proven that I have a FAR better than
average understanding of HOW, WHEN and WHY these particular markets move…
And right now? EVERYTHING I KNOW REGARDING
INTEREST RATES IS POINTING TO AN ABSOLUTE LIFT OFF IN EVERY FUTURES
CONTRACT IN THE INTEREST RATE SECTOR…INCLUDING THE SHORT END (SOFR), THE
MIDDLE OF THE “CURVE” (5 YEAR NOTES), AND THE LONG END (10 YEAR NOTES &
TREASURY BONDS).
I
EXPECT TO SEE AN ACROSS-THE-BOARD MAJOR DECLINE IN INTEREST RATES, AS, FOR
ONE, THE STOCK MARKET QUICKLY/IMMEDIATELY BREAKS AT LEAST ANOTHER 15-20%
LOWER, AND TWO, TRUMP’S TARIFFS WILL PROVE TO BE DISASTROUS FOR THE USA
ECONOMY…AND THE AMERICAN CONSUMER…THUS FORCING THE FED’S HAND…AND LIKELY
ARRIVING WITH THE HEADLINE, “FED CALLS EMERGENCY MEETING.”
Never seen anything like
what?
Considering what I
perceive as economically dire circumstances, I find it truly amazing that SPECULATIVE HEDGE FUNDS HAVE
THEIR BIGGEST SHORT POSITION IN HISTORY IN ALL THREE OF THE INTEREST RATES
CONTRACTS SHOWN BELOW…WHICH IS AN ACROSS THE BOARD BET THAT INTEREST RATES
ARE GOING HIGHER…NOT LOWER…AND I THINK THEY’RE ABOUT TO GET BLOWN OUT OF THE
WATER.
I RECOMMEND BUYING ANY OR ALL THREE OF THESE MARKETS…
TWO YEAR NOTES
5 YEAR NOTES
10 YEAR NOTES
Here are the options I’d
recommend in each of these three markets…
I love all three of these…I’d say buy in units
consisting of one of each…or about $1693 total. BUY THEM…and SEE WHERE WE
ARE IN STOCKS AND THE ECONOMY 3 MONTHS FROM NOW. Obviously I could be dead wrong…and all three could still just be sitting
here, which could mean losing everything…But conversely, all three could
have just zoomed out of here, in which case the profits could be quite
large.
And in the same vein…
And ditto the Cotton
market, that also has massive RECORD SPEC SHORTS, while
Commercials have RECORD LONGS…which I can only view as an indication that
the big player COTTON MERCHANTS UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE BIG ORDERS TO DELIVER
COTTON, AND A LOT OF IT, AT
SOME TIME BETWEEN NOW AND EXPIRATION OF THE JULY CONTRACT.
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND
BEING LONG COTTON…RIGHT HERE. RIGHT NOW…and find it interesting that it has been inching
higher…right in the face of all the stock market selling and tariff crap.
I truly think it looks
explosive…and on an “any day now” basis…
There are some very
strong ideas here…DO something with them.
Your call…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: All of them
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