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April 8, 2025
The Damage is Done.
Every other country in the world is now our “enemy.”
Stocks and the Economy Are Going MUCH LOWER
At
Trump’s “Liberation Day”, I heard his 4th grade opinion that the
United States has been “pillaged, raped and plundered” for the past 50
years…and about how terrible things have been for decades, and could only
think, “WTF is he talking about? I’m 75, born in 1949, and all I’ve seen my
ENTIRE life has been rising prosperity and a better and better standard of
living.” So what USA is this guy, who was born into millions
himself, referring to? And I dare say there isn’t a single person reading this
who’s experience has been any different…so, to me, to say that the richest
country on this planet has been “getting ripped off” for almost a century is
just DUMB…But then again, this does come from the same guy who seriously
suggested that injecting bleach into our arms as a possible remedy for COVID
(that’s a FACT and on tape). This brilliant global “art of the deal” tariff
strategy is also coming from a man that has had six bankruptcies, which argues
that he is either a horrible businessman…or some degree of a con man, neither
of which inspires, I believe, confidence in his ability to actually formulate
an intelligent approach to growing our economy…which, obviously, is the
“opinion” now being generated by the crashing Stock Markets, here, and around
the planet.
And please do not think this is sort of politically biased
statement. I don’t ever care which way any of the markets are going (I have no
control over that) and all I ever am trying to do is correctly predict what
comes next and hopefully make profitable recommendations.
THERE’S A LOT GOING ON IN JUST ABOUT EVERY SECTOR OF THE
MARKETS…
HERE ARE UPDATES ON SOME OF THE MARKETS I AM CURRENTLY
POSITIONED IN.
Still Short Stock Indices
In a word, I think all of Trump’s tariffs approach is mostly
bluster and mostly erroneous in factual basis. I’m not going to break down all
the numbers for each and every country (and uninhabited island) on his target
list but will just point out one example of how totally off the mark and
almost blatantly fabricated his numbers are…Both Germany and France (EUROPE)
have a Net Effective Average Tariff Rate of about 2%...which is just what it
sounds like, meaning that the bottom line number on all imports and exports
between the USA and these two countries is that their tariffs are about a net 2%
above our own…yet Herr Trump has decided we’re getting raped…and is therefore
slapping a 20% tariff on both nations…And then ditto the same for
Japan, where the net effective rate is 2% more…yet he his hitting
them with a 24% tariff? Again, my opnion
here has nothing to do with politics, but I view this sort of “negotiating” as being ENORMOUSLY
and DISASTROUSLY ILLOGICAL…AND AGAIN, THAT IS WHY THE EQUITY MARKETS,
REPRESENTING ALL THE BUSINESSES OF THE WORLD HAVE BEEN MAKING THIS TRULY RECORD
HISTORICAL OUTRIGHT COLLAPSE…WHICH I BELIEVE IS FAR FROM OVER.
So what’s next?
I have been quite bearish
Stocks, Gold and Crypto since last fall, even without anticipating that the
White House would be delivering what I view as a now irreversible “death blow”
to stocks and the economy…to the extent that no matter what attempts Trump now
makes to backtrack from here (and he will…and probably blaming anyone other
than himself), going forward, for quite some time, I would expect that anything
he says or does will be met with a high degree of distrust and/or uncertainty,
both domestically, and especially internationally…neither of which will be
conducive to creating a positive economic climate for growth. With this in
mind, even though we
have already hit my 38,000 target on the Dow, I STILL
THINK WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO ON THE DOWNSIDE IN STOCKS. I CONTINUE TO
RECOMMEND BEING SHORT THE STOCK INDICES…
The damage has been done…and
I think will be irreparable for some time to come…
MY TWO PRIMARY SHORT POSITIONS ARE
GOLD AND THE CATTLE COMPLEX
SHORT GOLD
As I have repeatedly stated, late last year, “Buy Gold! You gotta own Gold!”, unanimously became Wall Street’s favorite
and most hyped idea to the trading masses…to the extent that New York’s dealers
were swamped with so much buying (AFTER a $900 rally) that they were shipping
bars in from London!…And as I have also reminded you, when ALL of the
brokerages are ALL OVER an idea, and when investors are literally lining up to
buy a market, you are just begging to lose money if you follow them…And that IS
what is just beginning to unfold in Gold…They DID convince the investing public
to follow their advice…and now a whole herd of investors are sitting there
waiting for the profits to roll in…believing in the MYTH of Gold as a safe
haven hedge…precisely when the Gold bull move has ended…and is, I believe, now underway with at
least a 20% ($600) relatively straight down sort of crash that has been almost
a norm for this market ever since 1980.
SHORT FEEDER CATTLE &
LIVE CATTLE
Between all the DOGE job slashing…not to mention the
“downstream” job cuts and consumer confidence difficulties (reduction of
services for just about every sector of the middle and lower classes, including
every veteran we have) that WILL be a result…and the economy destroying Tariff
disaster that probably already does have the USA headed into a recession, I
FULLY BELIEVE THE BULL MARKET IN CATTLE HAS BEEN STOPPED DEAD IN ITS TRACKS…AND
HAS DEFINITIVELY BEGUN A MASSIVE SEVERAL YEAR BEAR MARKET.
I
CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BEING SHORT BOTH THE LIVE CATTLE AND FEEDER CATTLE
MARKETS. I LOOK FOR AT LEAST 20% DECLINES IN BOTH MARKETS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3
MONTHS.
I view this as being one THE
most over-inflated markets I have seen in my 45 years in this business. With
the stock market as the initiating catalyst, I believe this market has now
cracked wide open….and is about to destroy a whole bunch of people in the
Cattle industry. I honestly think this contract could go further down than I
have drawn it...If you have ANY inclination to get on this, I'd say do it
NOW...Hard opening gaps down may be routine during the next few days or weeks.
I think these are BIG potential…Obviously, if I am wrong,
you can lose every dollar you put on the table…But for me, that risk is well
worth what I think the rewards will be. Very much so.
Call if you want to make a move…or talk about
possibilities…Lots of ways to do all of this.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account
and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned
within: Stock Indices, Gold, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle