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March 25, 2025
I have been early, which means
DEAD WRONG
& LOSING MONEY…
but I
believe
SHORT GOLD AND SHORT CATTLE WILL BE
TWO OF THE BIGGEST TRADES OF 2025
AND NOW IS THE TIME
TO BE INITIATING NEW POSITIONS IN BOTH OF THEM
As I have written for months, my perception has been
that “everybody is long everything,” (stocks, crypto, chips, AI, Tesla,
precious metals, etc.)…and what we are now seeing is a rotating LIQUIDATION
collapse in all of them…with about anything in Equities and Crypto already
having taken big percentage hits (but not as big as it will get)…while Gold, which I have described
as THE MOST UNANIMOUSLY POPULAR IDEA IN THE INVESTMENT WORLD TODAY, has
been hanging in there, and in fact, with every brokerage house in New York
hyping it on, has just inched past $3000 into new highs, and “is heading
higher!” But what I’ll say is: This is NO different than what we were
hearing about Nvidia, Telsa, Bitcoin, etc. a few months ago as they made
new highs…before cratering…and that the same BEARISH FATE IS DEAD AHEAD IN
GOLD.
Do understand that Gold goes up AND down just
like everything else on the board…It DOES have major peaks and valleys, and
when it does start a down phase, it typically cracks hard, out of nowhere
and NOT due to any particular news event, and then takes years, or even
decades, to get back up to its last high. And I know, when the entirety of
NYC is singing “higher and higher,” it’s difficult to just say, “I’m
selling. I’ll take my money,” But that IS about the only way you can BOOK a
true profit there…by getting out. For sure, it’s substantially higher than
it was 25 years ago, but so is ANYTHING else you could have bought then,
from a plastic toy to stocks, to land or whatever. There IS a time to
buy gold…and very definitely a time to sell it, as 30-40% declines ARE the
norm when Gold makes a downturn.
I’m not going to rattle on about what moves this
market, except to say it has NOTHING to do with classic supply vs demand
fundamentals…that in my old hack opinion, it is 99% driven my mob
psychology myths, which are ALWAYS on the bullish side (nobody EVER
really alludes to “bearish fundamentals” in Gold), that result in it
routinely cycling between where we are now, on the highs, with Wall Street
and the Internet Media influencing the public into one final FOMO surge of
buying…And then
it’s liquidation time, wherein, within months, or even weeks, it DOES often
get immediately blasted for 15-20%...and from current levels that
translates into $450-$600 per futures contract, or $45,000-$60,000.
Here are some recent very
one sided UNANIMOUSLY BULLISH headlines…And
I am sure there are some bearish opinions out there, but I have not seen
them. ZERO. Anywhere…and believe me, that IS of significance.
AND THIS, FROM TODAYS’S NEWSWIRES…???!!!
And again, Gold does NOT go endlessly higher…It
FREQUENTLY has sharp downturns…
I THINK THIS
PUT HAS EVER BIT OF THE POTENTIAL I HAVE SHOWN HERE…
Also to say there is a Micro-Mini Gold futures contract
wherein each $1 move = $10, meaning a $100 move = $1000…making it more risk
manageable than the normal 100 ounce contract…For
example, this contract could be sold here, and using a $50 stop over the all time highs, your risk is about $500. Margin for
this contract is about $1500.
Short the Cattle Complex
FEEDER CATTLE
I have been wrong here, and been losing money, but
this does not change my opinion that this has become one of the biggest
commodity shorts ever. This market DOES have a 50 year history of making
overnight "V" reversals followed by 20% relatively straight down sell offs...And I firmly maintain that this time will be no
different. I personally will not be out of this trade...and DO absolutely
believe this is an incredible level to be taking new short positions.
I absolutely LOVE this
put…and the numbers here are NOT some sort of pipe dream…
LIVE CATTLE
This
put has a lot of time but I
think Cattle will be down 15-20% long before expiration…
OK…So I HAVE been
early…meaning WRONG…on both Gold and Cattle…but I am not some dumbass
broker who is perpetually on the wrong side of everything…I DO get it right
at times, and when I do, the objective is not to just make small change. I THINK THESE ARE BOTH GIANT
IDEAS…AND DO THINK THAT THE ODDS ARE THROUGH THE ROOF THAT THEY ARE FINALLY
THERE…TO THAT MYSTICAL TOPPING POINT FROM WHICH THEY DO FINALLY
ROLLOVER AND DO CRAP OUT IN
THE VERY SAME WAY THEY HAVE DONE…FOR DECADES.
Hoping you hear me…and
SEE this as I do…and PUT SOME MONEY ON THE TABLE…As always, knowing that if
I am wrong you could lose it all…but if I am right, it ought to be BIG.
Contact me if you want to
take the chance…Also to say there are various ways, other than the options
shown, to go about doing this.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account
and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned
within: Gold, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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