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March
10, 2025
Everything
is MOVING…
Or about
to be…
Considering
all the HYPE during the past six months, and particularly last November
when the whole financial world was HOPPED UP on Chips, Nvidia, AI, ANY Tech
Stock, Gold…and Crypto, I cannot imagine that there is anyone who WOULD
have jumped on those wagons that hasn’t already done so…with both
feet…and they are now all caught in the trap I have repeatedly described
as, “everybody is long and buying everything,” EXCEPT the one area of the
markets that they should have been buying, Treasury Bonds and Notes.
I still
continue to see the various sell offs in all these supposedly “can’t lose”
markets as just getting started…and absolutely expect that the TWO markets
that haven’t cracked yet (Gold, Cattle) are next in line…More on that
later.
I’m sure you’re
sick of hearing it, but I’ll repeat my firm belief that NONE OF THE VALUES
OF ALL THESE PIECES OF PAPER ARE REAL, BUT ARE
NOTHING BUT A FUNCTION OF INVESTORS CHASING…AND FLEEING…WALL STREET DRIVEN
PERCEPTIONS…THAT IT’S ALLL JUST A GIANT MOB PSYCHOLOGY GAME. And right now,
the stage of the game we’re in is: The public has totally bought the story,
and now, for the umpteenth time, they’re about to lose a lot of money as
New York’s “strategists” counsel them to just hang on…to stay the course and
not panic…Until it’s too late.
I don’t
know how deep, or long, this sell off will take us, but I do think it’s
just getting started and although I know I will get no takers, I continue
to recommend the short side of stocks…and Crypto…and Gold.
Bitcoin?
I know that all the believers will say that this
recent 6 week 30% decline is “just volatility,”
but I think they are about to find out that it’s much more than that…and
would not be surprised to see it trade under $50,000. I will also repeat my
prediction that it could easily drift away into even substantially lower
levels…and NOT EVER become the replacement for fiat currencies such as the
Dollar, the Euro, Swiss Franc, British Pound, etc. that Cryptoheads
think it will.
I do
recognize it can be an accounting vehicle (primarily for the underworld),
but can’t see it as anything more than that for the following reasons:
ONE - I don’t
know ANYONE who actually USES Bitcoin, who actually says, for example, I
want to convert my checking account from Dollars to Bitcoin…and keep it
that way…at the risk of having seen that account lose 30% since
mid-January? I’m sure there are a few exceptions (very few) but I’m
pretty sure that almost 100% of investors buy Crypto for only one
reason…and that is because they have come to believe it is going up…And
why? Because it already DID…
TWO - Neither
Bitcoin (or any Crypto) truly has value unless it
can be converted into an established international currency. If, to
be specific, it couldn’t be exchanged for, say Dollars, how could it even
exist? I mean, imagine the entire planet with no currencies backed by any
country, and crypto was the only form of “cash”…with
its value being based on WHAT? Wildly fluctuating market pricing? In other
words, if there were no Fiat currencies, how would you determine that 1
Bitcoin = ?????. Point blank. It would not/could not/cannot exist if
there are no “real” currencies to convert it to.
THREE - Legitimate
businesses CANNOT use it as a store of value. For sure, if, for
example, you’re manufacturing furniture, have an 8% profit margin and want
to list your prices in Dollars and/or Bitcoin? So, OK, that’s fine. BUT…at
the very minute that you make a sale, and someone pays you in Bitcoin, if
you don’t immediately convert it to dollars, then you are NOT in the
furniture business. You are really just a Bitcoin speculator, trading your
furniture for something that, within hours, days or months could decline 10-15%
and dramatically wipe out any profits…and worse. Again, No
legitimate business can actually use it beyond a point of sale transaction
vehicle…and not one hour beyond that really.
FOUR - And yes,
I know the line, “You just don’t understand it
Bill. Don’t you know there’s never been anything like it before, anything
in history that’s gone from pennies to $100,000?” But to that I’ll just say “So what?” Nobody is EVER going to convince me that
any, or all, of the maybe 1500 crypto currencies, and DJT type meme coins,
many of which have also had monstrous 1000% increases in “value” are the
result of anything other than internet promotion and speculative mania…That
simply because they’ve gone from 1 to 500 (or whatever) is “proof” that
they must be real? No way. Yeah, Crypto will continue to exist but it will slowly
drift away over time…maybe like an internet version of “Beanie Babies” or
“Cabbage Patch Dolls,” or as I’ve previously noted, like Gold at $875 in
1981, and when the whole world was just bullish as shit…only to watch it
drift back to $250 OVER THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS.
And let’s get real…Stocks ARE doing exactly the
opposite of what 98% of Wall Street and the Internet Squawkers would have
told you just one month ago. Don’t kid yourself…This could
easily just be getting started…I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BEING SHORT ANY OF
THE THREE STOCK INIDICIES.
And Treasury Bonds and Notes are the place to be
long…All the money leaving Stocks will be going somewhere and US Treasury
Instruments ARE the safest piece of paper on the planet…And this Five Year Treasury Note contract has become EXTREMELY
INTERESTING…
BUY THIS CALL OPTION…
Gold is
next…
Everything is tanking today…and Gold, supposedly
the big safe haven, is down $25? Not even up? That should tell you that
everybody already owns it…and I will reiterate that LONG GOLD is probably THE most
unanimous opinion on Wall Street today…NOT good…And I maintain that it is
imminently about to go the way of those other SUPER POPULAR IDEAS like
Nvidia, Tesla, Crypto, etc…and CRACK WIDE OPEN…I
keep saying it: Believing in the brokerage house’s HYPE machines is
perennially a great way to lose money.
BE SHORT GOLD.
Just remember…NOBODY at the brokerages was even
remotely thinking about Short Stocks or Short Crypto a month ago.
NOBODY…And they sure as hell aren’t saying that about Gold today.
Cows…
And I see the Feeders the same way…And yeah, they
are STILL on their highs…but I continue to think that ANY single down day from
here is going to be the beginning of a rout that DOES take them straight
down…faster than what we’ve just seen in Stocks and Crypto…I’ve
been here before, where you think, “It just won’t happen!”, AND THEN IT
DOES…with the timing coming out of nowhere, even surprising me…and
especially EVERYBODY in the cattle business…And btw, I was at a cattle
auction last week, and I’m telling you, even at the highest prices in
history, THERE WAS ZERO FEAR ABOUT BUYING CATTLE FOR FEEDLOTS. And I swear,
that is NOT bullish.
Call if you’re interested…or disagree. I always
love feedback…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All option prices
in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless
otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES TRADING IS
NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN
LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of
this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial
interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: All of them
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