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March 6, 2025
I continue to recommend:
SHORT THE STOCK MARKET INDICES
AS I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR MONTHS, AND REPEATED IN
JANUARY:
January 12,
2025
MY VERY DISTINCT FEELING
REMAINS THAT EVERYBODY IS LONG EVERYTHING…that everybody IS “in,” and all
hopped up on Nvidia, Chip Stocks, AI, Crypto, Gold, etc.…and feeling all
but certain that owning any, or all, of these markets is almost a “can’t
lose” situation…That, at a minimum, “You gotta
have SOME chips, AI, Crypto, Gold and/or Silver…” Otherwise, you’re gonna miss out!”
And that mindset has the masses, in NYC and alike, seeing any recent
weakness in these areas as “pullbacks,” and potential “buying opportunities.”
AND I AM
SEEING MORE AND MORE EVIDENCE THAT ALL OF THOSE “GOTTA HAVE” MARKETS ARE
BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL…AND ARE NOT, I BELIEVE, “JUST PULLING BACK,
“CORRECTING,” OR REPRESENTING “BUYING OPPORTUNITIES.”
The headline below from a
few weeks ago kind of says it all…that Wall Street, already looking wrong
with the markets back down to where they were going into the election
(which was supposedly bullish for stocks)…was then
looking for ONE STOCK to “lift stocks more broadly?” I mean, really, this
TRULY was the “professional” opinion out there, which, as a trader, I can
only classify as just DUMB…but that WAS the message from the Brokerage
Houses.
And now? Two weeks later
and the markets hitting new lows? This may just be one line from one major
investing website but it DOES present the Wall
Street perspective that is still out there…that we are just in a
“pullback.”
Thursday, March 6, 2025
Let’s get real, a month
ago, virtually EVERYBODY at the brokerage houses was totally bulled up, and
NONE of them were saying, “We’ll be making new pre-election lows in March,”
but now their take is to regard the downturn as just “a
pullback,” in other words, nothing to be worried about? One more time, I
think they have got it dead, dead wrong and the decline we’re seeing is
something MUCH more serious than that.
As I am forever repeating, these are ALL just pieces
of paper and this IS just a giant mob psychology
GAME...in which NO VALUE IS REAL...AND CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED TO “KEEP
GOING UP.” And I suspect it's just about time for the perennially wrong
Wall Street Brokerage Houses, who ARE the source for 99% of the investing
public’s opinion, to, once again, basically screw the masses as ALL of
their investments, except Treasuries, go down big and hard from here…Won’t
be the first time, nor the last.
While I’m pretty sure the
major catalyst for the decline stems from all the disruption, confusion and
uncertainty being generated by the White House…particularly the tariffs,
job cuts, threats and department eradications…I think it would be in error
to suppose that all DT needs to do to “save” the markets is back off and
reverse some of his tariffs/policies…and Stocks will just magically turn
back up…Aside from my perception that “everybody is long everything,”
implying that the next big investor wave will be “selling everything,” Herr
Trump’s intentions are pretty well known now, and my own impartial
assessment is that the majority of his actions already are, or will be,
negatives for both the USA and World Economies (which may be what the Stock
Market is already indicating). Beyond that, I would also suppose that his
“America First” idea might just be a total backfire, in that while he is
telling the world, “Don’t export to us. Spend here and build your factories
here,” the international response from all of the USA’s former allies
might just be the opposite…that is, the result is LESS investment here…and
NOT more…which ultimately could contribute to an undesirably massive
weakening of the Dollar, which is something I’ve wondered about…but that’s
a discussion for another time. Bottom line is: The United States has been a
beacon to the Free World…and we might now be headed towards being some
degree of an Isolationist Pariah…and that is NOT good for our economy.
In spite of the fact I
have had many YEARS of FAR better than average predictions regarding the
Stock Market (go track them on my newsletter archives on the website), I
have literally NEVER had anyone take a Stock Indices recommendation, so I’m
not expecting anyone to do so now…But should you be interested, I can tell
you that they are best done using either the Mini Futures or even the new
Micro Mini Futures in all three of the contracts shown above…with the Micro
Mini’s especially being what I would consider to be quite “risk
manageable.”
On other fronts, I CONTINUE TO SEE BOTH
FEEDER CATTLE AND GOLD AS MONSTER SHORTS…in the class of, “I
will not be out of either…for a single day.” If I am wrong, you could lose
everything you spend. If I am right, I truly see them as making potentially
8-10 times your money…I’d also say that in many years there has been
something of a correlation between the Stock Market and Feeders (for real),
which would infer that falling Stocks can affect the Cattle…And AS EVER, I WILL MAKE THE
POINT THAT FEEDERS DO HAVE A TENDENCY TO JUST CRAP OUT…FROM ONE DAY TO THE
NEXT…AND IN A BIG, BIG WAY.
Call if you want to do
something with any of this.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Stock Indices, Gold, Feeder Cattle
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