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February 24, 2025
As have stated before, I seriously doubt that Xi Jinping
is going to bow down to Herr Trump and his tariff threats…And therefore can
only supposed that DJT will have no choice but to follow through on
them…with what I can only view as having potentially devastating
consequences for Corn and Soybean prices.
I don’t know if the
markets will react the same way this time, but here is what happened in
2018 when Trump played the same Tariff game…
THIS WAS THE JUNE 15TH HEADLINE AND OFFICIAL
ANNOUNCEMENT (from United States Trade Representative archives)
And this is how Soybeans and Corn traded…BASICALLY AS
STRAIGHT DOWN AS ANY MARKET EVER DOES…
And today? Between $5.00 Corn and $10.50 Soybeans (which
are NOT low prices) amping up global acreage…and the unquestionably bearish
impact of tariffs, whether real (God forbid) or just threatened, to say
these markets seem vulnerable here would be an understatement. And in spite
of recent rallies, BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS ARE STILL IN BEAR
MARKETS…AND I THINK ARE ABOUT TO RESUME DOWNSWINGS THAT WILL TAKE BOTH
MARKETS INTO NEW LOWS DURING THE NEXT 4-6 MONTHS.
I have been laying
low on this for the past two months (having been wrong about the last
rally) BUT I ABSOLUTELY
THINK IT IS TIME TO BE SHORT AGAIN…
Determining when a bear market rally has finally ended
is always tricky, but I’d say the combined look of both of these
markets…with Soybeans at several month lows, and Corn having surprisingly
(to analysts and farmers) dropped 15 cents these past two days…DOES,
I believe, represent solid evidence that another bearish swing is
starting…ESPECIALLY WHEN IT’S AGAINST THIS BACKDROP OF “WHAT WILL TRUMP
DO?” For my money, I advise against overthinking it here, and immediately
GOING WITH IT ON THE DOWNSIDE…I mean, really, WHAT is bullish right
now?
This IS smart…and great leverage…and going WITH THE
TREND.
JUST GO WITH IT…The bear market has NOT ended…
Call me.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Soybeans, Corn
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