July 14, 2008
If you want to respond to anything here, I will be unavailable until 12:30 Tuesday (tomorrow) afternoon. While I am out, my phones will be forwarded thru to Tom, Rick and Willie at Benchmark Financial. Even though they can handle anything you need regarding your account, I would prefer not to saddle them with explaining how I would go about establishing these positions...so if you are truly interested, give me a call in the afternoon.
Sell Corn, Soybeans and Cattle
I know everybody is wondering where stocks will stop falling but my own immediate interest is in trying to get people short the agricultural markets.
I believe virtually all the ags are hyper-inflated and do not remotely reflect current economic realities...that specifically, Corn, Soybean and Cattle have all been bid to the moon and are now floating on a lot of hot, much overdone, speculative air. In fact, I think these markets are not that different from the housing or stock markets 9-12 months ago...all three will suffer the same nasty fate as has been the case in real estate and equities.
I believe, therefore, this is an excellent time and price to initiate short positions in all of them...while they are still "up" and, in the case of corn and beans, now heading towards harvest, that time of the year when supply is traditionally at its greatest.
I may be dead, dead wrong but I see these markets as possibly the best opportunity to short a commodity as you'll ever find...I mean, if you look at the historical swings on the long term charts below, you cannot help but notice how ALL of the bull moves seemingly collapse at some point. All of this stuff is really just math (the risk vs. reward in US Dollars), and for my money, taking a shot at being short from these absurdly high levels absolutely makes as much sense as anything ever does in this business.
If this is a risk you want to take, I'd get moving on it now. It's is fairly amazing (but almost the norm) how quickly commodity bull markets can go down once they've finished going up...and with the levels we are at, there's no telling how fast, big or bloody these markets could get once they start hitting it on the downside.
Call me if you want to know more...Thanks. (and again, I will be unavailable until 12:30 Tuesday afternoon)