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November 30, 2021
Row crops got CRUSHED today, with Corn down 13 cents, Soybeans down 22 cents, Soybean Oil down 2.88 cents, Wheat down 33 cents, Cotton limit down 5 cents…and I assure you, this was NOT just some randomly weak day. Maybe I will be proven dead wrong, but I absolutely believe this is the beginning of a year-end sell off that is going to get as nasty as it ever gets in the commodity markets.
As I keep reiterating, Corn, Wheat, Cotton and the Soybean Complex all look like they have built classic commodity market tops…Meanwhile, I can honestly say that I have yet to see a single commentary…anywhere…that even begins to mention the possibility of downside targets in ANY of these markets…EVERYTHING is about where “prices ought to get to on the upside.” And while I’m sure there must be some bearish analysis out there somewhere, I have seen nothing but bullish opinions citing the same “bullish fundamentals” that have been out there for months…
And as I also keep reiterating, with all the bullish talk, believing that they should hold out for even higher prices, farmers as a whole are sitting on tons of production that they already ought to have sold, AND, on top of that, virtually all of them are also waiting to make sales until January for tax purposes…the point being, THERE IS A MOUNTAIN OF SELLING THAT IS COMING TO MARKET…AND SOON…or really, I’d say RIGHT NOW.
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND OWNING PUTS IN ALL OF THE ROW CROPS, WITH MY MAJOR FOCUS BEING ON THE SOYBEAN COMPLEX…And if you ever would make a trade in this crazyass business, I URGE YOU TO TAKE A SERIOUS LOOK AT TAKING THE RISK OF BEING SHORT AT THESE HISTORICALLY HIGH PRICES…If I am right, shots like these do not come around that often.
My recommendation is to do all of these as a unit…but if you want to pick one, I say it’s the Soybean complex…And I absolutely don’t look at any of these markets and think, “Too late to get short.” ALL of these markets are still within the confines of their topping formations…So DON’T look at one big down day or two and think you’ve missed it….At any rate, do one, or do them all…but I urge you, DON’T JUST WATCH THIS HAPPEN.
And again, yesterday and today were NOT just some random down days…It’s across the board…and according to the analytic masses…NOT supposed to be happening. And if you don’t know what I mean by that, give me a call and I will explain.
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The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: All of them