November 17, 2023

Several days ago,  with Soybeans again challenging new highs, and analysts weather talk almost sounding like all of South America was either flooding or in a massive drought, as well as noting heavy Chinese Soybean buying that was (or HAD been) occurring, I abandoned my long held short position in Soybeans…I did say, however, that in the face of all this loud, loud bullish ”logic,” if the market were to now fail back through the 1350 area, I WOULD TAKE IT AS AN EXTREMELY BEARISH SIGNAL…indicating that this most recent rally was potentially the last fakeout before Soybeans do what SO many other major commodities have done during the past year, which is…and yeah, I will say it again…TOTALLY COLLAPSE.

AS THAT “FAILURE” HAS DEFINITIVELY OCCURRED DURING JUST THE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, I BEGAN REINSTATING SHORT POSITIONS YESTERDAY AND ADDED TO THEM TODAY. I AGAIN RECOMMEND GETTING SHORT HERE, VIA FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IN THE MARCH, MAY AND JULY CONTRACTS.

I do not stay on this because I am stubborn, or unwilling to admit that I am wrong…I am still on it because this market, which has a history of enormous one way BIG dollar moves, DOES still represent an opportunity I have seen too many times to count…that is, a market that is super high, has clearly topped (from everything I know about charts), and is accompanied by what I perceive as endless unanimously bullish opinion from analysts, farmers and traders…which sooner or later virtually always seems to end in a “wipeout.” And with $14.00 Soybeans inspiring Record South American and Global Acreage, to me, the idea that we’re just going to stay up here, or go higher, is just ludicrous.

It may sound stupid, or a bit egotistical, but if Bill Rhyne was ready to give up, I’m going to say that there is probably NOBODY else left on the short side…And believe me, WHEN YOU GET TO THAT POINT WHERE NOBODY WANTS TO BE SHORT, IS WHEN YOU WANT TO BE DOING EXACTLY THAT. Period. That IS the way this game works.

I think the odds are through the roof right now.

The reality is that current prices ARE going to inspire MASSIVE acreage in Soybeans, EVERYWHERE on the planet...and going forward, as the idea of "shortage" is replaced by "surplus" (the NORMAL course of events in commodities), there is no telling how far down Soybeans will go...with, I believe, $9.00 being a very real possibility. Sound crazy? Well so did $72 Crude a month ago (down $18), or $6 Wheat, from $14 a year earlier...or 70 cent Cotton, from $1.50, etc., etc. etc. That IS the way the futures market GAME works.

I am still Short because I don’t think it  gets any bigger than this…or as OBVIOUS. That doesn’t mean I will be right  but that IS my very, very firm opinion.

I continue to recommend owning options in all of my other recommended trades…And I would definitely, NO QUESTION, probably put this on the top of the list…

Call if you want to know more…Lots of ways to do this…These option prices may easily have changed by the time you have read this.

Thanks,

Bill

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866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans