September 28, 2023

I have made the decision to NOT be short the Cattle Complex here. In a nutshell, with the Cash Live Cattle market currently at about 83 cents…with the December future at 190, February, 2015 at 194, and April, 2015 at 197 (14 cents over the cash market), GETTING SHORT THOSE CONTRACTS JUST LOOKS TOO EASY…and if there’s one thing I’ve learned about futures, it’s that if it looks obvious, or almost risk free, you’d better not believe it…In other words, for example, with cash at 83 cents, it looks like you can short April at 197 and would have to see the cash rally 14 cents before the trade started turning negative on you…which, really, on the surface, makes it seem almost impossible to lose money…And that AIN’T how this stuff works.

Yes, Cattle are in the stratosphere…and yes, they WILL become a monster short in another month or two…but for right now, I TAKING THE BIT OF MONEY WE’VE MADE SINCE GETTING SHORT LAST WEEK AND MOVING TO THE SIDELINES.

Truth is, it is quite possible there is a lot of money to be had on the upside…but for now, I’m just an observer.

I AM STILL RABIDLY SHORT SOYBEANS AND LONG COTTON…

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, Soybeans, Cotton