September 17, 2024

 Will be out of my office…In Egypt & Turkey

Leaving with two trades on…

Next Tuesday night (Sept 24^th) I will be travelling to Egypt and Turkey and will not be back in my office until Monday, October 14^th.  While I am gone, If you need to contact me, you can do so by text or phone to my cell…770-366-3070…or by calling my normal office landline which will be forwarding to my cell phone. As I will be in a different time zone (7 hours ahead), or maybe deep in some Pharoh’s tomb, you might not get me immediately, but if you don’t, leave a message and I will get back to you asap…I’ll obviously be on vacation, and therefore basically not “thinking” about the markets, but I will be monitoring them.

IF YOU HAVE AN ORDER THAT YOU NEED TO ENTER…

I am leaving with positions on (see perspectives below) that I absolutely do not want to be out of…and during the 13 trading days of my trip, I also do not foresee changing those positions in any way…no matter what happens…Obviously, if something truly monumental takes place, and I do think there is something we should do, I will be able to contact any of you who might be affected…

BUT IF YOU DO HAVE AN ORDER YOU WANT ENTERED, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO CONTACT THE ADM 24 HOUR TRADING DESK AND THEY WILL HANDLE IT FOR YOU. THAT NUMBER IS 312-242-7352…All you will need to do is tell them you are a client of Bill Rhyne, give them your account number, and they will place your order. They will be able to give you option or futures quotes but they do NOT offer any market related opinions, nor information regarding your account positions, as they are strictly order takers…Again, however, if you do have questions about your account, contact me and I will get back to you as soon as I can.

 Current Market Perspectives

Markets I am exiting…

After recommending the short side of Corn and Soybeans for well over two years, I have decided to stand aside in both markets. Both have recently rallied off their month ago lows, and while I suspect there is STILL a massive farmer liquidation sell-off coming, I thought we would have seen it by now, and I have to respect the fact the recent rallies may represent seasonal lows having been made…And putting that together with my leaving town, it simply makes sense to be on the sidelines. BUT…If either market gets back down to those recent lows, I will absolutely view it as meaning the odds go through the roof that another major downswing is beginning…and WILL most likely be reinstating those shorts.

 CORN AND SOYBEANS

CANADIAN DOLLAR

I am exiting our long positions in the Canadian Dollar...When I recommended buying the Canadian Dollar a month ago, I did so based on the knowledge that speculative funds were massively short…and I assumed it would take a fairly large rally to run them out…It now appears that the 250 point rally off the lows has done that, with the total open interest having dropped from 350,000 down to 128,000 in just the last 4 weeks as those short funds DID cover (Buy Back) the overwhelming majority of their position. I thought the move would carry much higher than that but it did not. At any rate, I have no further reason to be long and am therefore recommending exiting any remaining longs you might have.

TREASURY BONDS

Though I have had only a few people act on my recommendations to buy Treasury Bonds many months ago, I am now moving to the sideline there…Quite frankly, whenever every talking head on the planet is chattering about “rates going lower,” I get wary of being on the long side of Bonds…And right now, with the whole world talking about “How much the Fed will cut?”, I just think this is a good time to be on the sidelines.

Two markets I will NOT be out of right now…

Short the Cattle Complex

Short Gold

Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle

I continue to see both Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle as having formed massive tops during the past year…and continue to see monster sell offs ahead in both of them…I view the recent action as nothing more that rattling around, just above contract lows, and still believe than ANY given down day can be the beginning of an outright CLASSIC, OUT OF NOWHERE, COMMODITY MARKET COLLAPSE.

I am leaving town owning puts in both markets…and would not be surprised to see them sharply lower by the time I return…and TRULY JUST BEGINNING their respective crashes lower. It goes without saying that I might be wrong about this…and if I am, you could easily lose what you have on the table…but I LOVE LEAVING TOWN WITH THESE POSITIONS ON…

I ABSOLUTELY RECOMMEND BUYING PUTS INTO THIS LAST LITTLE RALLY WE’VE HAD…AND THEN FORGETTING THEM FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

Short Gold NOW

As I wrote when I first made this Short Gold recommendation 10 days ago, I knew takers would be few and far between…and that has proven to true, with only one “wise fool” taking me up on it…All I will say is this…Gold does not move, at all, based on supply and demand…It moves on one thing, and from my perspective, one thing only….EMOTION…Talk all you want about it being an inflation hedge, or a safe haven when geopolitics get hot, or some sort of currency replacement, or all of the other hogwash “fundamentals” that get attached to it, but in the end, THE ONLY REAL REASON ANYBODY EVERY BUYS IT IS BECAUSE THEY THINK IT’S GOING UP…And what drives them to think they need to buy it “now?” Wall Street’s geniuses and the Financial Media…which, unless you’ve been on Mars, are ALL roaring bulled up on this market to the extent that Gold going higher from here is being expressed as an almost “sure thing” sort of situation…What I will remind you is that Gold does go up AND down…and when it’s down, it’s typically pretty big and pretty fast…And to be honest, I’m going to say that, right now, my impression is that Gold is being more bullishly hyped than I have seen it in years. I THINK IT IS A FANTASTIC SHORT…RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW…WHILE ALL THE BROKERAGE HOUSES ARE JUST ALL OVER THE LONG SIDE.

Call and say hello before I go…

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Cattle, Gold