September 7, 2024

Before getting into this new recommendation, I have to say that Friday’s dead low close in the Cattle markets has dramatically AMPED UP MY FEELING THAT THE COLLAPSE I HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING IS NOW BEGINNING A MAJOR ACCELERATION…and strongly recommend adding to current short positions…And if you are not on this yet, I urge you to get something on…right here, right now.

Obviously, both Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle can turn back up from here and prove me wrong…which means losing money…but I honestly could not draw charts that look any more bearish than this…ESPECIALLY considering that prices are still at record high levels.

I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND OWNING PUTS IN BOTH CATTLE CONTRACTS.

The NEXT big speculative trap?

The next market in which Wall Street’s

“expertise” loses money for the public?

Back in June, what follows was my intro to a “Sell Everything” newsletter…

June 18, 2024

I don’t think I have ever seen it like this…where it seems like EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE LONG EVERYTHING… The bearish Brokerage House nitwits who started the year almost unanimously bearish the stock market are now jumping all over themselves to one-up their cohorts at to “how high stocks are going from here.” And I don’t care what asset class it is, seems like there are nothing but buy recommendations everywhere…What AI stock do you want to buy? What’s the next Nvidia? And be SURE you get some Crypto!…And oh yeah, get some Gold, and especially Silver now…! And don’t forget Crude Oil…which is now “low” and must be a buy here. And Copper…Cattle…Cocoa? At their all-time highs? Doesn’t matter…They’re all in short supply! Get long some of them too!

Really. Think about it…For sure there are “worries” being expressed by the ever backwards talking heads…There always are, even in the best of times…But right now, Wall Street’s analysts and economists  are comforted by the fact that the big bogeyman, inflation, is definitely on the wane…and everybody’s big question of, “When, or IF, the Fed will lower rates?”, has now become, “Soon! And Oh Boy! That means Stocks, Precious Metals, Crypto, etc. can only be going up!”

And so with ALL of these markets at all-time highs, DO YOU HEAR ANY NOTICEABLE DOUBT ABOUT WHERE ANY OF THEM ARE GOING…EXCEPT HIGHER?

I’m say it again…for the 1000^th time…that investing IS the world’s biggest mob psychology game…and that ALL of the values of ALL of these asset classes are a function of media generated MASS PERCEPTIONS…and more so than ever here in the 24-7 INTERNET INFORMATION AGE…And that, as we all know, there IS a time to be buying…and there IS a time to be selling…IN ALL OF THE MARKETS…And right now, with my read of the media being that it’s not “IF” you should buy, but simply “WHAT” you should buy, across the board, whatever the market is? I THINK IT IS TIME TO BE SELLING JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING.

Back to the present…and what some of those HOT markets cited above have done since June 18th

  And I have left one market out…

There are recommendations that I make here that I KNOW will get no takers…And this generally occurs in major markets wherein ALL of the Internet Squawking Heads…and ALL of the media…are UNQUESTIONABLY on the other side of what I am recommending…I mean, everybody knows that the contrarian approach of going against the crowd IS where the big money can be made, but when 99% of the “logic” out there is making a seemingly absolutely accurate, AIRTIGHT, argument in one direction? And when it’s coming from a bunch of articulate Wall Streeters who ALL sound SO smart…? And to be clear, when it’s truly coming from EVERYBODY?…Believe me, having been in this chair for so many years, I think I do have a better than average understanding of trader behavior…and so I’ll tell you it just goes totally against human nature, when it comes down to RISKING their wallet, for the average investor to say, “I think every single one of all those people are wrong. And I’m not just going to think it. I’m going to BET MY MONEY in the opposite direction.” And THAT is why this trade, which to me has become somewhat obvious (which does not mean I will be right), will most likely generate zero calls, texts or emails to “Get me in.”

                                                    Short Gold NOW

OK. I know all of the traditional “reasons” to be long Gold. They’ve been the same for all of the 44 years I’ve done this…And yes, Gold, over time does become more expensive, but that is simply a function of the FACT that EVERYTHING, whether it’s a soft drink, a sports ticket, a car or a house, etc., also has become more expensive as the years have gone by. A Coke used to be a nickel, now it’s $2.50. What used to be a new $5000 car is now $40,000, and so on…And Gold is no different…EXCEPT for a few MAJOR reasons…one being the fact that it basically has no “use” and is primarily owned as an investment vehicle, and the other being that none of those other examples can spend 20 years losing 80% of their value (1980-2000), or drop by almost 50% in just 3 years (2012-2015), or crater 20-25% on numerous occasions…For sure, Gold also goes up, and for sure, it’s recently made new all time highs…but again, so have Cokes, Cars, Houses, etc…But my point is, Gold IS just another investment on the spectrum that also DOES GO DOWN, and usually sharply so, precisely when ALL of the KNOW -NOTHING NEW YORK BANK AND BROKERAGE HOUSE SHEEP HAVE IT ON THEIR “CAN’T MISS” LIST…And unless I am grossly mistaken, that IS what we have right now. EVERYTHING I HEAR AND READ IS NOTHING BUT BULLISH…EVERYBODY IS ON ONE SIDE OF THE BOAT…and ANY talk of Gold going down, I believe, is NOWHERE OUT THERE.

 
IT DOES NOT MEAN I WILL BE RIGHT…

BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS “SCRIPT” BEFORE

A 20% ($500) DECLINE WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME AT ALL

Quite possibly, this is

THE most popular one way opinion on the street right now...

If you’re going to trade Gold, or “be” in Gold, you’d better understand that it DOES frequently go down, and it often does it in large percentages.

Of late, I have seen all sorts of bullish stories that with the Fed easing, it can only push up Gold prices…or that the World’s Central Banks HAVE BEEN buying Gold, and supposedly will just keep grabbing more and more...and the wars are “obviously” a bullish factor (which have been there for several years now and are NOT, I think, some new inspiration to buy)…and then, oh yeah!, that investors have lately been piling into Gold ETF’s, with the added “rationale” that this is supposedly a bullish indicator, when my experience suggest exactly the opposite…And like I said, I KNOW all of that…and one more time, have seen ALL of that same “story” precede substantial, and sometimes very lengthy, sell offs…which typically are initially quite sharp and fast as all the gold lemmings run for the exits in a MASSIVE LIQUIDATION.

Here's a put I like right here…An no, they aren't cheap...

Exit if Gold closes in new highs...and lose an estimated $1800

Contrary to some recommendations I make, $2500 Gold is different from, say, $18 Soybeans, or $10 Corn a few years back…or $2.50 Feeder Cattle today, wherein my recommendation was/is to GET SHORT and STAY SHORT…I absolutely don’t think Gold is going higher from here, but I do respect that “mob psychology” CAN drive it higher, and maybe by a lot…and I therefore WILL exit…and wait for a new entry point…if it does make new highs.
 

Call me if you want to do something with this…or explain to me why I am wrong.

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, Gold